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《大行報告》美銀證券一舉降鞍鋼(00347.HK)評級至「跑輸大市」 下調馬鋼(00323.HK)目標價至3.2元
美銀發表研究報告指,由於行業需求疲軟持續更長時間,對今年第四季鋼鐵板塊持審慎看法,預計表現將進一步落後大市。 該行預計,今年全年中國鋼鐵需求將按年下降7%,受累房地產需求持續疲軟,明年反彈空間有限,同時基建刺激措施對鋼鐵需求的影響亦未似前幾輪一樣有效,因為大部分支出將集中在電網和可再生能源等新基礎設施上。 中國5月份鋼材出口按年增長47%。美銀表示,根據渠道調查,由於今年國內利潤微薄、政府對出口的干預減少以及美元匯價走強,鋼企正增加出口,其中寶鋼股份(600019.SH)預期出口貢獻收入佔比將由2021年的8%,提升至今年料介乎10%至12%。 美銀將今年中國鋼鐵出口預期上調至7,500萬噸,淨出口預測亦上調至6,000萬噸,料為區內鋼鐵利潤率帶來壓力。美銀預期,鞍鋼(00347.HK)第二季將錄得虧損,每噸毛利跌至僅108元人民幣,將今明兩年盈利預測削減49%及13%,評級由「買入」一舉下調至「跑輸大市」,目標價由4.4元削36%至2.8元。 同時,美銀預期馬鋼(00323.HK)次季盈利將按年下降90%以上,受到房地產需求疲軟所拖累,將今明兩年盈利預測下調41%及18%,評級「中性」,目標價由3.3元降3%至3.2元。
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