You are browsing the Hong Kong website, Regulated by Hong Kong SFC (CE number: BJA907). Investment is risky and you must be cautious when entering the market.
《大行報告》中金:美國要走出高通脹及避免衰退有難度 估海外市場調整壓力加大
阿思達克 06-17 11:45
中金發表報告表示,今年以來美國通脹連創新高,給美聯儲帶來明顯壓力,美聯儲剛宣布大幅加息75個基點,料下半年到明年中國市場面臨的海外政策模式及其後果值得關注。該行指有了1970年代應對高通脹的教訓,美聯儲有跳過在通脹和增長間糾結的階段,而直接進入1970年代末不惜經濟增長代價控制通脹的政策模式的可能性。 該行認為,美國要走出高通脹及避免衰退有難度,高通脹本身是經濟失衡到一定程度的體現,糾正這種失衡往往會有一定的經濟代價。1970年代美國的政策導向偏差和對經濟誤判,使貨幣超發和財政大幅赤字等擴張性政策長期主導,疊加物價管制,石油、糧食危機等,和全球戰後持續較長時間的日本及歐洲製造業紅利的結束,共同導致了美國和全球復雜的滯脹局面。 最終在1979年沃爾克上台採取緊縮貨幣政策為轉折點,以大幅壓低需求為代價收縮基礎貨幣和提高貼現率,遏制高通脹也導致了經濟的衰退,其後美國列根政府主導減稅的供給側改革、加大科技創新力度並增加軍費支出擴張總需求,「緊縮」與「擴張」的組合拳幫助美國最終走出「滯脹」。 中金指,結合歷史上美國以政策緊縮應對高通脹以及1970年代末「沃爾克時刻」的經驗等,該行認為如果美國政府進入不惜代價控制通脹的階段,美國經濟未來「硬著陸」的概率可能加大。 歷史高通脹對當下資產價格的啟示,中金指當前全球宏觀和市場特徵與1970年代末有一定差異,若迎來更激進的緊縮和「大脹之後大滯」重演,該行估海外市場調整壓力可能加大,國內市場可能也會受到影響,當美元指數上升,將對新興市場帶來挑戰。
Follow us
Find us on Facebook, Twitter , Instagram, and YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
uSMART
Wealth Growth Made Easy
Open Account