貝萊德:美大手加息料受市場歡迎 未來幾個月核心PCE通脹與名義CPI通脹料更趨分化
美聯儲宣布加息0.75厘,加幅符市場預期,貝萊德全球固定收益首席投資官Rick Rieder回應稱,利率加快邁向「中性」水平,長遠將受經濟及企業決策人歡迎,並最終受市場稱許。Rieder以面對變化中的路面環境,將汽車(棍波或自動波)波段轉至「N波」類比,就決策彈性上留下空間,特別是前往目的地路途面對更多泥濘的時候。
Rieder稱,美國5月通脹較許多人預期為高,上周其他通脹數據未有改變市場料與高通脹「共存」一段時間的預期。因此,如主席鮑威爾所述,需大手加息,至高於中性利率水平,以遏制通脹。美聯儲目標是拉低通脹,並防止通脹預期急升,同時不窒礙經濟復甦,但似乎未來路徑更加狹窄(意味選擇不多)。
貝萊德表示,俄烏衝突對能源及食品成本的影響,所造成的供應干擾大幅推升通脹,這類通脹是美聯儲難以應付。未來幾個月,該行料美國核心PCE通脹與名義CPI通脹之間分野更大,主因食品及燃料價格持續波動,致名義CPI通脹持續高企,但核心PCE通脹或有所放緩。該行稱,倘未來數月通脹未有廣泛地回落,則料歸咎於食品及能源產品價格高於預期。
因此,美聯儲是次加息是有需要,其加幅最終將被市場所認同是有益,更快邁向「中性」水平,並有清晰意圖邁向「中性」,或輕微高於「中性」水平。
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