國泰君安:5月生豬量減重增,供給向下
本文來自格隆匯專欄:國泰君安證券研究,作者:鍾凱鋒、王豔君等
主要觀點:
投資建議:供給向下,預期價格向上,持續推薦生豬養殖板塊。從5月月報可以發現,量減少重量增加,總體供給繼續減少,我們預計未來供給壓力有望逐步降低,價格有望震盪上行。5月價格上漲至現金成本線,上市公司仍持續虧損利潤,產能出清動力仍在,未來可能繼續鋸齒型產能去化。推薦標的:牧原股份、温氏股份、天康生物、新希望、大北農、天邦股份等,彈性標的:傲農生物、巨星農牧、唐人神等。
出欄量下降:5月出欄總量下降6.99%,育肥豬總量環比下降10.80%。11家上市公司5月出欄總量1056.54萬頭,環比4月減少6.99%。從出欄結構看,由於5月仔豬價格有明顯上升,仔豬銷售比例環比提高,育肥豬比例降低,11家上市公司育肥豬量環比下降10.8%。
體重上升:出欄體重環比上升4.03%。由於4、5月全國均價明顯上升,部分公司壓欄銷售,如天康生物、新希望等公司體重明顯增加,主要上市公司的均重在5月環比上升4.03%至114.01公斤,但仍然維持在標豬體重。
價格上升:5月出欄價格上漲,但仍低於養殖成本線。5月各公司育肥豬出欄價格明顯升高,但和各公司目前養殖完全成本比,仍無法盈利。因此5月銷售價格仍是虧利潤階段,部分公司不虧現金流。
風險提示:疫情風險、禽畜價格波動風險、原材料價格波動風險、生物資產減值風險、償債風險
正文:
一、5月:量減體重增,總體供應量向下
1.1育肥豬出欄總量環比下降10.8%
5月出欄總量下降6.99%,育肥豬總量環比下降10.80%。11家上市公司5月出欄總量1056.54萬頭,環比4月減少6.99%。從出欄結構看,由於5月仔豬價格有明顯上升,仔豬銷售比例環比提高,育肥豬比例降低,因此11家上市公司育肥豬出欄量環比下降10.8%。


未來部分公司的年內出欄中樞或逐步下降。2022年前5個月,牧原完成全年出欄規劃50%,其他公司也完成全年出欄40%左右,我們認為各公司隨着仔豬出欄比例增高,隨着全年出欄目標逐步推進,部分公司的年內出欄中樞或逐步下降。

1.2 出欄體重環比上升4.03%
出欄體重環比上升4.03%。由於4、5月全國均價明顯上升,部分公司壓欄銷售,如天康生物、新希望等公司體重明顯增加,主要上市公司的均重在5月環比上升4.03%至114.01公斤,仍然維持在標豬體重。

1.3 出欄價格回升
5月出欄價格明顯上漲,但仍低於養殖成本線。5月各公司育肥豬出欄價格明顯升高,但和各公司目前養殖完全成本比,仍無法盈利。因此5月銷售價格仍是虧利潤階段,部分公司不虧現金流。

二、投資建議
供給向下,預期價格向上,持續推薦生豬養殖板塊。從5月月報可以發現,量減少重量增加,總體供給繼續減少,我們預計未來供給壓力有望逐步降低,價格有望震盪上行。5月價格上漲至現金成本線,上市公司仍持續虧損利潤,產能出清動力仍在,未來可能繼續鋸齒型產能去化。推薦標的:牧原股份、温氏股份、天康生物、新希望、大北農、天邦股份等,彈性標的:傲農生物、唐人神、巨星農牧等。

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