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郭思治: 大市續上尋月內高位 惟表現略帶反覆
香港股票分析師協會副主席郭思治稱,大市昨(7日)略見反覆,惟相對周來之升幅計,暫只屬急升後之高台回吐而已,恆指昨早市先輕微低開76點至21,577點,其後曾在買盤支持下一度上升91點至21,744點,但由於買盤不繼,故大市亦漸轉反覆,恆指更一度回落259點至21,394點,從走勢上看,大市於高台之反覆暫只屬急升後之正常消化及回吐而已,而經昨天日中之上升,本月大市在先低後高之形態主導下,恆指暫是由2日之低位20,884點升至7日之高位21,744點,即月內之波幅已稍擴闊至860點,但由於一個月之高低位是不該同時出現於3個交易日之內,加上860點之波幅亦該不能滿足月內之所需,故在本月餘下之交易日,理論上該有更高或更低之指數出現,從而拉闊月內之波幅以滿足所需。 短期後市能否再進一步推升,當需視乎一眾主要恆指成份股之表現而定。談到重磅恆指成份股之表現,當中較關鍵的是騰訊(700.HK)佔恆指成份8%,美團-W(03690.HK)佔6.71%,阿里-SW(9988.HK)佔6.48%,京東-SW(9618.HK)佔2.58%,即上述4隻新經濟股在恆指成份內共佔23.77%,另舊經濟股方面,匯控(00005.HK)佔8%,友邦(01299.HK)佔7.96%,建行(00939.HK)佔5%,港交所(00388.HK)佔3.46%,工行(01398.HK)佔2.84%,中移(00941.HK)佔2.72,平安(02318.HK)佔2.58%,中行(03988.HK)佔2.01%,即上述8隻舊經濟股在恆指內之成份比重共佔34.57%,單是上述12隻恆指成份股在恆指內之比重已共佔達58.34%,故後市能否作較明顯之推升,當需視乎上述股份之表現而定,當中該以騰訊,美團及阿里等之表現至為關鍵。 (筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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