植耀輝: 恆指重上21,100點 觀望中國PMI數據
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,港股昨日(30日)延續反彈勢頭,在新經濟股及內需股造好下再升426點,收報21,123點,科技指數更升近4%。大市成交亦增加至1,288億元。成份股中以內需股表現最佳,李寧(02331.HK)升幅超過11%,華潤啤酒(00291.HK)及海底撈(06862.HK)亦分別上升8.2%及9.7%。至於新經濟股亦表現出色,京東-SW(09618.HK)及美團-W(03690.HK)均升近7%,阿里-SW(09988.HK)亦升4.3%,而騰訊(00700.HK)則升2.4%。
經近期之上升,恆指本月已由跌轉升,若今日能持續造好,則五窮月有望以升市結束。當然內地今日(31日)公布之PMI數據表現對市場氣氛或會有所影響,不過踏入「六絕月」,筆者依然繼續看好大市行情,尤其是一旦疫情逐潮退卻,相信會有更多扶持及刺激經濟措施出台。預期短期後市先看21,500點,若能成功突破則可進一步上望22,500點水平。
至於上文提到之內需股,無疑深圳及上海宣布一系列刺激措施有利投資氣氛,不過基於股價已反彈不少,故現水平亦暫不宜高追,反而新能源股同樣有政策憧憬,前景仍可看高一線,故若見調整則可買入作中長線持有。
(筆者為證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份)
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恆指重返50天線 打破浪低於低格局
耀才研究部稱,隔晚(30日)美股假期休市,外圍主要關注美國總統拜登本港時間今晚(31日)與美聯儲主席鮑威爾會面,料探討如何對抗通脹,目前大多數官員均支持未來兩次議息會議各加息半厘。市場風險胃納回升,比特幣升穿3萬美元,升幅為兩周最大。
中國接連推出補貼措施支持消費,以及上海明天起全面推進企業復工,均有利股市氣氛,恆指自2月起的跌浪起計,首次重返50天線,成交有所配合的情況下,短暫打破了浪低於浪的格局,不過由於21,100點水平屬於2月小雙頂的頸線位置,相信阻力亦會較大,需要時間消化升幅。內地今日將公布製造業PMI,市場預計數字為49,雖然比起上月有回升,但意味著製造業景氣將連續四個月處於收縮區間,留意數據能否帶來驚喜。
技術上,恆指升穿50天線,打破了自2月起浪低於浪的走勢,首要阻力位置為5月初的高位21,291點水平,由於該水平亦為2月小雙頂的頸線位置,成功突破的話,以量度升幅起計恆指有條件重返22,400點水平。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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