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《大行報告》中金:ETF通短期對港交所(00388.HK)盈利增厚有限 但可強化長期競爭力
阿思達克 05-30 12:09
中金發表報告表示,就上周五(27日)內地與香港證監會發布聯合公告,為進一步深化內地與香港股票市場交易互聯互通機制,促進兩地資本市場共同發展,中證監、香港證監會原則同意兩地易所將符合條件的交易型開放式基金納入互聯互通。該行指ETF通即將落地、推進時間符合市場預期。 該行指將基於資產規模及指數成分股要求、納入合資格內地/香港市場ETF。根據《上海證券交易所滬港通業務實施辦法(2022年第一次修訂)(徵求意見稿)》,此次將滿足一定條件的內地與香港市場股票ETF一並納入互聯互通的範圍,納入標準為內地市場ETF過去六個月日均資產達15億人民幣,且成分股中滬深交易所上市股票權重佔比不低於90%、滬股通/深股通股票權重佔比不低於80%。香港市場ETF過去六個月日均資產規模達17億港元,且成分股中聯交所上市股票權重佔比不低於90%,港股通股票權重佔比不低於70%或80%(不同指數標準不同)。 中金估計短期直接增量有限、但將進一步豐富及便捷境內外投資者的投資渠道和交易品種。該行測算,當前A股市場中大致滿足條件的股票ETF資產規模達7,105億元人民幣、2022年以來日均成交額265億元人民幣,滿足條件的港股ETF規模2,833億港元、今年以來日均成交額83億港元(均截至5月29日);若假設穩態情況下,南北向ETF滲透率可達當前股票通水平(即南向15%/北向5%),則將增厚北向日均成交額53億港元、南向日均成交額44億港元,對應增厚港交所(00388.HK)收入及盈利1.7億港元及1.3億港元、各佔2021年的0.8%及1.1%。 該行認為,ETF的納入雖對港交所收入增厚相對有限,但ETF通有助於投資者更便捷有效地實現跨境配置、改善ETF市場投資者結構和流動性。此外,港交所企業日曾提出,未來擬將互聯互通標的拓展至上市債券、衍生品或商品等,並在假期交易、股票借貸及北向大宗交易等方面突破,該行認為港交所的長期競爭力持續鞏固、建議積極關注,維持對其「跑贏行業」評級及目標價460元。
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