《大行報告》中金:中央穩經濟增長信號明確 料下半年顯著反彈 全年基建投資或增8%
中金發表報告表示,國務院早前召開全國穩住經濟大盤電視電話會議,在疫情反覆、外需下行壓力加大的背景下,該會議釋放的穩增長信號非常明確。會議指出要「高效統籌疫情防控和經濟社會發展,把穩增長放在更突出位置,著力保市場主體保就業保民生,努力確保第二季度經濟合理增長和失業率盡快下降」,並指出國常會確定的穩經濟一攬子政策5月底前要出台實施細則。實際上,近期多個部委也在加緊出台穩增長政策,隨著穩增長政策進一步落實,疊加疫情逐步得到控制,料內地下半年經濟有望明顯反彈。
該行指,內地除地方加強貫徹落實外,近期多部委也密集開會或發文部署穩增長和紓困政策落實,體現為貨幣、財政、監管政策等協同發力。本輪穩增長以來,貨幣政策超前發力、寬鬆力度已較大,流動性已較充裕。該行指內地銀行負債端成本的降幅可能不低於2020年,流動性供給也非常充裕。從流動性的供應上來講,2021年12月至今,人行已經累計降準75個基點,釋放資金1.73萬億人民幣,與2020年上半年降準釋放的資金(1.75萬億人民幣)大體相同。此外,2022年人行上繳利潤1.1萬億人民幣,也直接為銀行提供基礎貨幣。接下來,不排除政策或將進一步引導內銀增加貸款支持力度,政策性銀行或將發揮更加積極的作用。
中金指,內地財政政策在本輪疫情前已超預期(廣義財政收支差額/GDP超過2020年),疫後逆周期力度進一步加大,體現在保主體、保就業保民生、促有效投資三方面﹐保市場主體將通過進一步加大減稅降費力度、引導金融助力市場主體紓困發展等措施執行。在今年減稅退稅規模達2.5萬億人民幣的基礎上,穩經濟33條措施中提出再增加退稅1,400億人民幣,並擴大特定行業社保費緩繳範圍且緩繳延續至年底,緩繳規模達3,200億人民幣。
在今年專項債發行和撥付使用加快的背景下,配套社會資金和項目開工或也將迎來較大幅度改善,中金們認為政策性銀行或將發揮對重大基建項目的支持作用。全年廣義基建投資增速或達8%,如果配套社會資金有較大幅度放鬆,不排除接近10%的可能性,遠高於去年0.2%的按年增速。(wl/s)
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