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機構 :港股二季度築底,下半年便是晴天
uSMART盈立智投 05-23 09:56

2022年,新冠肺炎疫情持續影響香港市場,疊加海內外多重因素影響,上半年港股表現疲弱。

展望2022年下半年港股市場投資機會,開源證券海外市場團隊認爲,二季度築底,佈局下半年反彈。對比全球主流股票市場及歷史港股自身表現,港股當前估值水平偏低,已經具備中長期配置價值,但估值便宜不足以構成反轉理由。基於DCF模型:

1、分子端:盈利增速是港股長週期上漲的核心驅動力。(1)中國經濟體增長潛力相比歐美經濟體具備比較優勢,下半年經濟有望回暖美國經濟1Q提前出現衰退,國內經濟待疫情緩解後有望於下半年回暖。未來是中國、歐洲經濟同步往下走,還是中國率先復甦、領先於歐美,是關鍵的宏觀變量。如果中國穩增長政策及疫情防控抓緊落實,驅動中國經濟體率先復甦的話,有望帶來吸引外資迴流。(2)匯率:人民幣貶值是不利因素  。

2、分母端:分母端因素整體比較錯綜複雜,會影響港股的階段性表現。(1)無風險利率:加息預期基本反應,縮表推動實際利率上行(2)風險溢價:流動性風險溢價:港股通資金還在淨流入,外資尚未明顯迴流,外資迴流還是需要看到港股基本面趨勢優於歐美經濟;美聯儲縮錶帶來的海外流動性緊縮影響;中概股退市對港股流動性的潛在影響仍需持續關注。

風險提示:(1)軟件及產品推出不如預期;(2)產能及供應鏈風險;(3)疫情影響;(4)監管政策變動;(5)宏觀經濟增長放緩。

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