一文綜合大行於小米(1810.HK)公布首季績後最新目標價及觀點
阿思達克 05-20 11:05
小米集團(01810.HK)今早股價彈高，盤中曾高見11.78元一度抽升6.3%。高盛表示小米首季業績符合預期，指受到關鍵零部件短缺和物流中斷等因素所影響，雖然面臨某些海外市場的宏觀逆風，可能會影響小米於今年下半年的復甦，但該行預計小米將能夠通過利用其優化的智能手機產品組合，在2022年下半年及2023年實現智能手機出貨量按年各增長12%及10%，料核心盈利可於今年第三季起回穩或呈增長，維持「買入」評級，但下調對其目標價由19.4元降至17.5元，反映手機付運、IoT及服務業務較低的增長預測。
小米昨(19日)收市後公布，截至今年3月底止首季由盈轉虧，虧損近5.88億元人民幣，對比上年同期賺77.93億人民幣；每股虧損0.02元人民幣。按非國際財務報告準則計，首季經調整淨利潤達28.59億元人民幣，按年跌52.9%。
小米首季收入733.52億人民幣按年跌4.6%。其中智能手機業務收入達457.62億元，按年跌11.1%。零部件持續短缺、疫情反覆及全球宏觀因素，導致首季智能手機出貨量減至3,850萬部，按年跌22.1%，智能手機平均售價(ASP)增加14.1%至1,188.5元。IoT與生活消費產品業務收入則增長6.8%至194.77億元；互聯網服務收入按年提升8.2%至71.12億元。研發開支為35億元，按年升16%。
【首季績符預期 憧下半年改善】
里昂發表報告表示，受到地緣政治風險和內地部份地區因疫情「封城」措施負面影響，加上消費者信心疲軟以及供應和物流挑戰導致全球智能手機出貨量和海外物聯網銷售下滑。該行下調對米2022年至2023年經調整淨利潤分別21%及13%，調低對其目標價由23.5港元至20港元，維持「買入」投資評級。
大華繼顯表示，受俄烏地緣政治風險和內地部份地區因疫情「封城」措施的負面影響，小米首季收入及調整後淨利潤均跌，於營運費用增加對銷售帶來負面影響下，將其目標價由17.3港元下調至16.3港元，維持其「買入」投資評級。
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下表列出7間券商予其評級及目標價：
券商│投資評級│目標價(港元)
高盛│買入│19.4元->17.5元
里昂│買入│23.5元->20元
花旗│買入│19元->18元
大華繼顯│買入│17.3元->16.3元
野村│中性│16元
瑞銀│中性│15元
摩根士丹利│增持│14元
券商│觀點
高盛│首季業績符預期，
里昂│消費信心疲軟及供應和物流具挑戰下，調低2022年至2023年盈利預測
花旗│仍看好小米增長前景
大華繼顯│受營運費用增加及銷售疫弱影響，下調目標價至16.3元
野村│首季銷售額及毛利略勝預期，關注營運支出上升及投資公允價值損失
瑞銀│首季淨利潤符預期
摩根士丹利│季績弱於預期，智能手機在國內外市場均表現疲軟
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