《大行報告》高盛調低騰訊(00700.HK)目標價至559元 料第二季面臨短期挑戰
高盛發表研究報告指,騰訊(00700.HK)首季收入持平,較該行預期低5%,但在主動控制成本下經營利潤基本符合預期。展望未來,雖然該行預期第二季主要不利因素爲宏觀經濟及疫情的影響,但相信騰訊生態系統具有獨特定位,並在遊戲、廣告及雲業務等領域擁有領先地位,成本控制得宜,相信可爲下半年帶來相對具韌性的增長及復甦。
由於疫情後正常化影響,國際遊戲收入遜預期。但高盛表示,騰訊市場份額仍有所增長,收入的增幅亦高於同行;本土遊戲業務3月份收入出現改善,預期趨勢可延續到第二季,高盛預計,在未成年人保護措施影響消減及新遊戲的推動下,下半年或會出現更明顯復甦。
廣告業務方面,受疫情封城及宏觀經濟復甦放緩所拖累,高盛預期第二季跌幅可能較預期大,目前預期將按年跌23%;預計年底宏觀環境改善,業務將有所復甦。
高盛預測,騰訊第二季收入將按年跌3%,調整後營業利潤跌20%,但下半年將有所改善,將2022至2024年收入預測下調6%至7%,並預計全年廣告收入按年下降8%,當中第四季升11%,並於明年維持升勢。基於預測調整,該行將目標價由644元降至559元,維持「買入」評級(確信買入名單)。
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