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《大行報告》中金料內地電商平臺從本季起利潤率可提升 關注阿裏(09988.HK)短期估值修復機會
中金髮表報告表示,預計內地電子商務增速在今年4月探底,建議密切關注「618」(電商購物節)的動態。該行認爲4月較弱的數據已經在市場預期之中,預計整體電商的物流履約將在5月起逐步恢復,電商平臺收入在今年第二季增速探底後,或在下半年低基數的作用下觸底反彈,建議重點關注此次「618」購物節的商家參與程度以及6月起的物流恢復情況。 該行指,內地電商平臺持續關注營運效率,預計從今年第二季開始利潤率水平有所提升。去年電商行業面臨直播電商的激烈競爭,並在社區團購等新業務上投入重金。而從去年年底開始,各家電商陸續意識到需要降本增效,在今年首季度起縮減營銷預算並精簡團隊規模。該行預計從第二季開始會看到競爭趨緩,利潤率水平按季有所提升。 中金指,目前內地電商平臺估值均處於歷史低位,其中阿裏巴巴相當於2023財年預測市盈率的12倍,京東(09618.HK)2022財年預測市盈率27倍。對於盈利不穩定的公司如拼多多(PDD.US),基於目前相關公司狀態和該行假設模擬了其「穩態」下2022年合理的利潤率,對應今年預測市盈率12倍的估值。該行推薦關注市場情緒企穩後此前估值過度調整的拼多多資金面迴流的機會,以及京東在前期較大股價調整後,基於供應鏈能力及其偏向必選消費品類的構成持續跑贏市場增速的基本面表現,同時建議關注短期阿裏巴巴估值修復的機會。
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