植耀輝: 美股反彈納指升近3% 觀望騰訊(00700.HK)季績
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,美股隔晚(17日)反彈,上月零售銷售數據表現理想,緩減投資者對經濟前景之擔憂,三大指數均有不俗表現,道指成份股中除Walmart(WMT.US)表現欠佳外大部分均錄得升幅,道指收升431點或1.3%,報32,654點,而大型科企造好,亦帶動納指反彈2.8%。標普500指數亦升2%至4,088點。
至於港股昨日急升652點,主要是受科技股及金融股造好帶動。成份股中以舜宇(02382.HK)表現最佳,上升13%,其餘科技股如阿里巴巴(09988.HK)及京東(09618.HK)升幅亦超過7%。汽車股表現亦理想,吉利汽車(00175.HK)及比亞迪股份(01211.HK)便分別上升8.8%及6.9%。事實上,昨日成份股僅得5隻股份錄得跌幅,反映反彈亦相當全面,而成交量亦回升至1,241億元。
經昨日之急升,恆指本月跌幅亦大為收窄至只得486點。由於隔晚美股反彈,加上憧憬內地對新經濟股之監管有望消減,相關利好有望繼續支持港股反彈。不過騰訊(00700.HK)將於收市後公布季績,預期投資者仍會傾向觀望。當然未來另一關鍵因素為內地疫情發展。預期大市仍會較反覆,於20,600點上落,短期阻力則上移至21,000點水平。不過,筆者相信隨著內地疫情持續回落,有關當局亦會陸續推出更多惠民措施以刺激經濟,對後市亦有望帶來正面支持。
(筆者為證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份)
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恆指20天線阻力成關鍵
耀才研究部稱,隔晚(17日)美股三大指數收市全線向上,聯儲局主席鮑威爾接下來的兩次議息會議中各加息0.5厘的機會較大,釋除市場憂慮,標指和納指均升超過2%。全國政協在京開會,國務院副總理劉鶴提到支持數字經濟持續健康發展,科網股走強帶動中國金龍指數升逾5%。
不過另一方面,美財政部長耶倫呼籲歐洲並同迫使中國改變不公平經濟與貿易操作,貿易關係緊張可能會成為後市的另一個隱憂,美國貿易代表戴琪早前亦主張擴大加徵關稅範疇以保障美國本土經濟。焦點股份方面,京東(09618.HK)首季收入按年升18%,升至2,397億元人民幣(下同),經調整純利為40.32億元,按年增1.6%,好過市場預期,今日收市後亦會有重磅股騰訊(00700.HK)的季報。
技術上,恆指昨日重越10天及20天線之上,MACD亦開始出現牛差距,不過以2月份高位25,000點起計,恆指仍然受壓於一條下降軌中,恆指需要升穿50天線才能打破浪底於浪的格局。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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