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《大行報告》高盛篩選出20只可提供「安全緩衝」美股 滿足三大標準:具規模、強勁資產負債表、估值吸引
高盛發表研究報告,指本年至今美股市場面對一連串宏觀阻力,俄烏戰爭是意料之外最大宗地緣政治事件。中國緊隨動態清零政策並實施封城,意味在大部分公司原先以爲疫情退卻後,供應鏈中斷爲時更長。 報告稱,美國國內而言,名義及核心通脹都在上升,迫使美聯儲採更鷹派立場面對。利率期貨顯示市場現顯示今年共進行11次加息四分之一釐的行動(其中三次已發生),今年初時候市場預期今年僅加息三次。本年至今名義十年期國債收益率由1.5%急升至2.9%。單計過去兩個月,實際十年期國債收益率由負1%升至正0.34%,上週回落至正0.19%。 高盛表示,上述發展致美股陷入熊市邊緣,標指自1月初高位回落18%。標指現較歷史高位低出16%。現時約60%大型增長互惠基金本年至今跑輸基準指數。該行篩選出20只可提供「安全緩衝」(Margin of Safety)的美股予投資者,它們具有三個特色,即規模及流動性(市值大於100億美元)、強勁資產負債表,以及估值吸引(明年盈測被下調20%情況下,2021至2023年股盈年均複合增長中位數仍有4%,而標指成份股經下調盈測後中位數爲負2%)。由於利率環境已改變,該等股份估值更形吸引。 該行早前上調標指今年每股盈測8%,但降年底目標由4,700點下調至4,300點。報告篩選出20只可提供「安全緩衝」的美股表列如下: 股份?行業?*經調整2021至2023年股盈年均複合增長(%) 百思買(BBY.US)?非必需消費品?負9% 富蘭克林坦伯頓基金集團(BEN.US)?金融?負18% 康菲石油(COP.US)?能源?24% Coterra Energy(CTRA.US)?能源?21% 雪佛龍(CVX.US)?能源?20% 德文能源(DVN.US)?能源?39% 美商藝電(EA.US)?通訊服務?負1% EOG Resources(EOG.US)?能源?15% 微晶片科技(MCHP.US)?資訊科技?4% 美光科技(MU.US)?資訊科技?19% Pioneer Natural Resources(PXD.US)?能源?29% 高通(QCOM.US)?資訊科技?5% 科沃(QRVO.US)?資訊科技?負9% 羅致恆富(RHI.US)?工業?1% 思佳訊通訊技術(SWKS.US)?資訊科技?負1% 普徠仕(TROW.US)?金融?負15% 泰森食品(TSN.US)?必需消費品?負16% Take-Two Interactive(TTWO.US)?通訊服務?4% Vertex Pharmaceuticals(VRTX.US)?康健?負3% 艾克森美孚(XOM.US)?能源?9% *在明年盈測被下調20%情況下
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