《大行報告》大摩料香港今明兩年GDP按年各增長0.5%及4.5% 估未來數季將緩慢復甦
摩根士丹利發表香港經濟年中展望報告,香港今年首季經濟按年收縮4%後,料未來數季將呈緩慢復甦,隨着社交距離措施的放鬆,料私人消費將可逐步正化,但美聯儲局對加息取態「鷹派」、內地清零的防疫政策等因素影響之下,會影響到香港的出口及資本性支出的增長表現。
在基本情境預測下,該行估計香港今明兩年GDP按年各增長0.5%及4.5%,料今明兩年CPI將按年各升1.6%及2%,並指對明年GDP增長4.5%預測是計入與內地恢復免檢通關的預期。
大摩表示,基於本港實施聯繫匯率政策,美聯儲局在加息立場「鷹派」下,料香港金管局的銀行貼現窗口的利率在今年餘下時間進一步上調175個基點至3%,然後在2023年進一步上升50個基點至3.5%。雖然美聯儲上一次加息週期(2016年至2018年)的經驗表明,香港充足的銀行同業流動性(反映在總餘額仍然較高,目前爲3,380億港元)應有助於在短期內減緩香港銀行同業拆息(HIBOR)加息步伐,料本港銀行體系今次的總體餘額下降的速度可能比上一個週期更快,因爲這次美聯儲在高通脹壓力下會更爲鷹派。
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