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《大行報告》高盛:美加息及強美元等短期困擾亞股 薦受惠加息、高毛利率及商品超級週期三大投資主題
高盛發表亞太區市場報告表示,MSCI亞太區(日本除外)指數於今年以來累跌約16%,近三十年以來首五個月第二最差表現(對比2000年科網股泡沫時期累跌17%),指投資者擔心市場迎來三大挑戰,包括美利息持續上升、美國經濟面臨經濟衰退的風險、以及美元匯率轉強。 該行料亞太區股市短期面臨持續挑戰,會受到高通脹、增長步伐持續、以及美聯儲局加息步伐所影響,並決定下調對MSCI亞太區(日本除外)指數未來三個月目標由580降至550,削對MSCI亞太區(日本除外)指數未來六個月目標由620降至590、對MSCI亞太區(日本除外)指數未來十二個月目標由670降至630,反映預測市盈率12.7倍。而該行建議「增持」中國離岸市場(予MSCI中國指數至2023年3月目標84點)及A股(予滬深300指數至2023年3月目標5,000點)。 高盛指,行業配置上建議「增持」銀行、能源、汽車、互聯網、金屬及礦業、半導體等。該行亦建議三大投資主題,第一是毛利及盈利趨勢正面的企業(定價能力較佳及毛利率較高的股份)、第二是可受惠美加息週期的亞洲區銀行股,本港上市包括匯控(00005.HK)、中銀(02388.HK)及渣打(02888.HK)、第三是商品超級週期受惠股。
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