《大行報告》中金上調中遠海能(01138.HK)目標價至5.09元 評級「跑贏大市」
中金髮表研究報告指,中遠海能(01138.HK)首季收入按年增長13%,盈利則按年跌93%,符合該行預期,相信盈利下跌主要由於期內油輪運價仍處於低位,同時政府補貼按年減少所致。
該行指,今年首季油輪航運市場供過於求,特別是超大型油輪船期當量費率水平低,令首季公司油輪船隊毛利率下降6個百分點至1%。中金預計,市場將觸底反彈,建議投資者於上行週期入市,因爲行業估值仍處於低位,上升空間較大。
中金續指,供應端方面新訂單正逐步消化,指出新訂單將主要在2022至2023年交付,令今明兩年產能分別增加2.9%及1.6%,由於供應端將趨緊,如果短期內運費保持低位,可能會加速舊油輪的退出,令未來上升週期的上行空間更大。而需求側方面,原油產量正在下降,去庫存持續,加上油價高企,將對需求造成巨大壓力。
由於需求受限及短期內盈利仍然承壓,中金將中遠海能今年盈利預測下調23%至11.7億元人民幣,並引入2023年盈利預測爲30.1億元人民幣,維持「跑贏大市」評級,憧憬行業見底回升,目標價升28%至5.09元。
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