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國泰君安料京東遭美列「預摘牌名單」不會對經營產生重大影響 料中美未來或可達解決方案
國泰君安發表報告表示,5月4日美國證券交易委員會將80多家公司添加到可能被美國交易所除牌的實體名單中,其中包括三家在美國上市的中國電商公司京東集團(JD.US)、拼多多(PDD.US)、唯品會(VIPS .US),意味着上述公司無法滿足外國公司問責法案的審計要求。而該報告自2021年起連續三年未能接受美國公衆公司會計監督委員會的核查,則此類公司的股票或美國存託股票(ADS)將被禁止在美國的全國性證券交易所或場外市場進行交易。 該行指,這並不是美國外國公司問責法案今年以來首次擴大預摘牌名單和最終除牌名單,現時這兩份名單上合共有128家公司。以微博(WB.US)和百度(BIDU.US)等類似案例作爲參考,其在2022年4月被列爲預摘牌名單及轉爲最終除牌名單後,股價似乎並沒有受到太大影響。考慮到微博和百度均已在香港二次上市,該行預計京東的股價可能與它們的走勢一致,這不會對京東的經營和財務狀況產生重大影響。 另一方面,唯品會和拼多多都只在美國交易所上市,該行認爲兩者的股價可能會出現一次性波動,但也不會對其經營和財務狀況產生影響,因爲它們的業務主要是在中國。國泰君安認爲這可能會使這兩家公司加速尋求二次上市,以減少其在美國退市的影響。 總體而言,該行認爲此次被列入預摘牌名單可能不會對三家在美上市的中國電商企業產生實質性影響,雖股價在短期內預期將有波動。同時,自4月份開始,中國政府提出修改境外上市保密規定,並繼續與美國監管機構就審計合作進行溝通。鑑於三年的監測期及美國和中國監管機構之間的定期會談,預計未來可能會達成協議或找到解決方案。 國泰君安表示,目前對中國互聯網行業的投資評級爲「跑贏大市」。維持京東(09618.HK)投資評級爲「收集」,目標價爲250港元;拼多多的投資評級爲「收集」,目標價爲60美元;唯品會的投資評級爲「中性」,目標價爲9.5美元。
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