中原按揭王美鳳料按息逐步升至1.7% 6月底按息或逐步邁向近2%
美國聯儲局宣布加息0.5厘,同時公布縮減資產負債表計劃。中原按揭董事總經理王美鳳表示,美聯儲視打擊高通脹為首要任務,以當地嚴重高通脹率8.5%及近9萬億美元的資產負債規模而言,加息及縮表步伐實屬溫和。
王美鳳指出,由於本港採聯繫匯率制度,港息將跟隨美息上升,預料港元拆息將會逐步上升,但現時在加息初期基於銀行體系結餘仍然高達3,375億元高度充裕水平,拆息升幅不會即時跟足美息;由於是次美國加息步伐較快及力度較大,港美息差將加快拉闊,加上今次美國明顯較早於加息周期同步開展縮表,或將令本港銀行體系結餘較之前加快收縮,預期下半年港元拆息跟隨美息上升步伐將加快。
她指,是次美息上升半厘後,預期1個月港元拆息將會逐步輕微上升至0.4%,以H按為主導的按息屆時將升至約1.7%。由於市場普遍預期美國將於6月份再加息0.5厘,預期本港按息有機會邁向接近2%水平,對比現時按息1.5%加幅為約半厘,每100萬元30年期按揭額計每月供款增加約250元或7.3%,影響輕微,加上政府今年放寬按保樓價上限推出「財爺PLAN」為置業人士降低首期負擔,相信供樓利息上升對樓市實質影響不大。
王美鳳續指,現時本港H按為主流的按息約為1.5%,而H按普遍設有以P按為基準的封頂息率現為2.5%,認為即使拆息上升,P上升前按息仍會低於封頂息率2.5%。由於下半年美國已預期有機會於7月份加息0.5厘,屆時聯邦基金利率已達2%,而其後落實加息之幅度視乎經濟走勢,不排除下半年本港P按利息有機會上升,但估計本港按息即使上升,年底仍較大機會低於3%水平。
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