《大行報告》摩通料匯控(00005.HK)若分拆亞洲業務會令收入降及引來監管風險 估落實機會微
摩根大通發表報告表示,匯豐控股(00005.HK)近日股價彈高,其表現優於同業,相信部分原因是市場憧憬其或潛在分拆亞洲業務不斷升溫。但該行指要注意是按去年數據,匯豐旗下亞洲業務的的稅前資產回報率(ROA)爲102個基點,對比集團總體是74個基點。
該行認爲匯控若分拆其亞洲業務,可能會削弱匯豐的全球網絡及其跨境銀行業務,從而導致市場份額和收入下降。如集團在環球銀行及資本市場(GBM)中,相關亞洲分部的收入中約50%來自美洲、歐洲或英國的客戶。此外,該行認爲重組可能代價高昂,這可能會導致監管審查日益嚴格。該行認爲其不太可能實行分拆旗下亞洲業務,並估計市場或最終可能失望,因料匯控管理層或會堅持目前的戰略。
該行預計,在香港加息前景改善和宏觀趨勢改善的背景下,本港銀行的盈利和估值都將上升,相比匯控,該行更看好其他香港本地銀行如中銀香港(02388.HK)及恆生(00011.HK)、以及渣打集團(02888.HK)。而該行維持對匯控「增持」投資評級及目標價63元。
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