《大行報告》中金:內地公募基金首季新增重倉股包括中移動等 籲配置高息股及優質成長股
中金髮表策略報告表示,今年首季度港股再度出現較大波動,主要指數跌幅一度均超20%,這對投資港股的內地公募基金也產生一定影響。該行指截止首季度,內地可投港股的公募基金(扣除QDII)總計2,335只,持有港股市值3,180億人民幣,較去年第四季的3,880億元下降18%。港股持倉佔股票總持倉的15.2%,較去年第四季的15.8%下降0.6個百分點。
持股特徵方面,內地公募基金今年首季重倉持股騰訊(00700.HK)、美團(03690.HK)、港交所(00388.HK)等龍頭,中移動(00941.HK)、中海油(00883.HK)、快手(01024.HK)和金蝶國際(00268.HK)爲季度新增重倉;而舜宇光學(02382.HK)、華潤電力(00836.HK)、長城汽車(02333.HK)和吉利汽車(00175.HK)則跌出前十。美團、快手、中海油、中移動、中國神華(01088.HK)、中國宏橋(01378.HK)增幅最多。
中金錶示,今年3月中旬金融會議傳遞維穩信號後,資金流出得到緩解,市場也逐步企穩進入震盪磨底格局。4月以來,國內疫情、中美利差以及地緣政治局勢升溫等再度引發市場回調,不過南下資金整體維持流入。整體上,2022開年以來滬深港通南向資金共計買入878億人民幣。在國內相對寬鬆的流動性環境和港股估值優勢下(公募持倉降到多年低位可能也體現了較爲低迷的情緒),該行預計南向資金流入有望延續。
該行預計中央政治局會議傳遞出政策積極信號有望改善情緒,關注後續政策落地效果和疫情進展。第一是首季度政治局會議傳遞出政策積極信號後,關注中國「穩增長」及「穩預期」政策落實,特別關注有房地產與基建、消費、紓困舉措及平臺經濟等方面的舉措;第二是後續疫情發展以及對供應鏈和經濟活動的影響;第三是美聯儲政策緊縮、以及中美監管合作等。整體來看,考慮到港股市場的估值更低而股息率相對較高,該行認爲中期內港股市場面臨的機會仍然整體大於風險。配置方面,建議從「現金流」的確定性思路上尋找受益,即高股息和優質成長股。另外,疫情改善背景下,香港本地消費和金融股份也值得關注。
綜合內地公募基金和其他類型投資者潛在投資空間的測算,該行維持每年5,000億至6,000億人民幣資金流入本港市場的預測。
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