國泰君安：鋰價至暗時刻已過，復工進度成關鍵
本文來自格隆匯專欄：國泰君安證券研究，作者：於嘉懿、董明斌、寧紫微
供不應求格局難扭轉，看好鋰價全年高位持續性。基本面上，短期鋰供需繼續緊張，鋰價維持高位走勢，且精礦端更為確定。1）無錫盤碳酸鋰2206合約上週上漲1.6%至44.8萬元/噸；2）鋰精礦：上週鋰精礦價格為3340美元/噸，較前一週上漲400美元/噸。雖然近期工信部提出持續加快國內鋰資源開發，但我們認為鋰供應增量短期並不會很快出現（更多影響遠期的供應預期），預計鋰現貨價格2022年內價格強勢。國內鈷原料價格短期穩定，鈷鹽冶煉企業價格調整邏輯轉向需求主導。鈷業公司多向電新下游製造業延升，構成鈷-鎳-前驅體-三元的一體化成本優勢，增強競爭壁壘。
受制於疫情壓低需求，鋰價小幅回調：上週中國鋰鹽價格由於需求走弱繼續下行，海外氫氧化鋰價格走出獨立行情，價格堅挺。電池級碳酸鋰大廠執行訂單所以價格還是保持50萬元/噸以上，電碳散單46.5-47.5萬元/噸。工業級碳酸鋰成交價42萬元/噸-43萬元/噸。日韓氫氧化鋰的散單交割價在80-83美金/kg，主要原因是出口困難以及運費增加。國內降價因為疫情的突發影響造成的需求收縮。我們認為疫情導致下游生產減量的狀態是不可持續的，車企於上週已開啟壓力測試，陸續復產，預期5月中陸續向好。增持：中礦資源、永興材料，贛鋒鋰業，盛新鋰能。受益：融捷股份、江特電機、鹽湖股份、西藏礦業、天華超淨、科達製造、西藏珠峯、川能動力、藏格控股。
需求持續走弱，鈷價繼續回調：下游採購需求持續偏弱，近三週社會庫存消耗趨緩，上週電解鈷頭部大廠再度下調出廠價，疊加鈷鹽價格下調情緒傳導。共同作用下電鈷價格下行。鈷中間品三月大量到港供給過剩，終端企業受疫情影響停工帶動部分三月前驅體廠四月減產，當前回收料廠家為減清庫存壓力紛紛低價拋售尋求出貨，帶動鈷鹽市場整體價格下行。受益：華友鈷業、寒鋭鈷業、洛陽鉬業、格林美。
疫情擾動終端，需求抑制帶低價格走勢。受疫情影響停工的新能源車企及供應鏈正在逐步恢復。上海市下發首批666家重點復產白名單企業，其中和汽車產業相關的超過240家，包括上汽大眾，上汽通用，特斯拉等整車企業。但由於疫情拐點尚未明朗，目前很難恢復大規模開工率及完全開放物流運輸，仍將對原料供給和交付構成一定製約，4月汽車消費和產業鏈將短期承壓。但從政策端和車企對復工復產的積極推動來看，預計5月有望逐步恢復正常。當前受疫情影響，終端方面產銷受阻，下游需求下滑。且月中期間為交付訂單週期內，正極材料廠與電池廠實際成交不多，正極材料價格承壓走低。
風險提示：新能源汽車增速不及預期。
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