晨星料內地疫情6至8周見頂 消費行業首選阿里巴巴(09988.HK)及百勝中國(09987.HK)
晨星亞洲股票研究總監陳麗子指,市場對今輪內地疫情反應過度,目前不少上海工廠已復工,並認為相比起2020年,供應和物流問題將相對緩和。惟美國利率上升等不利因素仍在影響投資者。
晨星發表第二季亞洲市場展望報告指,由於積極的利率前景和的經濟復甦,金融業仍然具有吸引力。中期而言,淨息差改善和經濟持續復甦將成為香港和新加坡銀行股的積極推動力,行業首選之一為中銀香港(02388.HK)。另受惠內地支持經濟而採取的前期寬鬆政策下,國有銀行首季貸款料有強勁的增長。
消費行業方面,晨星指疫情對電商行業的影響好壞參半。一方面疫情下消費者避免外出,增加網上購物,但可支配支出在消費者情緒疲軟的情況下減少。晨星預料內地疫情將在6到8星期內見頂,加上持續的防疫措施下,或令第二季的零售銷售增長疲軟。
晨星指,消費行業首選包括阿里巴巴(09988.HK)和百勝中國(09987.HK)。因宏觀經濟狀況改善應有助阿里下半年的表現,加上擴大股票回購規模亦有助股價表現。而百勝中國作為內地人口結構變化的長期受惠者,快餐滲透率仍有很大的上升空間。
樓市方面,晨星指本港樓價疲軟,但今年初的交投仍具韌性。雖然中期內預計利率會上升,但整體按揭利率應仍保持低位,為樓價帶來支持。
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