瑞銀下調人民幣6月目標至每6.55兌一美元 料無必要大幅貶值
瑞銀表示,基於中國多地出現疫情及面臨經濟增長的挑戰,加上美國聯儲局展示出更鷹派的態勢,將人民幣今年6月目標從原來的每6.4兌一美元,下調至每6.55兌一美元;9、12月及明年3月目標原本同為每6.45兌一美元,最新下調至每6.5兌一美元。
瑞銀表示,為應對通脹壓力,聯儲局正迅速及果斷地採取行動,美國2年期國債收益率或會由目前為2.74%升至3%,儘管人民幣相對美元仍存在實際收益率差距,但中國相對美國10年期國債債券的名義收益率已不具有優勢。
瑞銀指出,上海等主要城市出現新一輪疫情,封控管控措施料將令中國二季度經濟活動減弱,零售銷售已明顯受到影響,短期內或進一步走弱,因此人民銀行和政府應出台更大的政策刺激,以抵禦當前的下行風險,不過中央在提振經濟方面至今相對謹慎,增加了短期經濟增長風險,從而令人民幣承壓。
然而,瑞銀不認為中國會積極推動人民幣貶值以支持經濟,因為在全球市場不確定性的背景下,這將是弊大於利,此外人民幣需要大幅下行至每7兌一美元,才能帶來明顯的出口競爭優勢,中國穩健的貿易餘額也表明,人民幣沒有必要大幅貶值,相信匯率只是緩步下行,第三季將小幅回升。
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