大消息刺激！房地產板塊快速拉昇，多股漲停，降準對行業影響有多大？
今日早盤，消息面的刺激下，港A兩地地產股、物業股表現強勢。A股房地產開發板塊快速拉昇，隨後有多回落，截至發稿，京能置業、渝開發、京投發展漲停，浦東金橋、中華企業漲超6%，海苔發展漲超5%，津濱發展漲近5%。
港股內房股也是大漲，龍光集團漲超4%，合景泰富、寶龍地產漲超3%，富力地產、時代中國、中國金茂漲超2%。
消息面上，昨日，國務院總理主持召開國務院常務會議，會議提出，適時運用降準等貨幣政策工具，進一步加大金融對實體經濟特別是受疫情嚴重影響行業和中小微企業、個體工商户支持力度，向實體經濟合理讓利，降低綜合融資成本。
會議還決定，針對當前形勢變化，鼓勵撥備水平較高的大型銀行有序降低撥備率。
降準要來了？降息呢？
昨日的國常會中市場最關注的信息主要是關於降準的內容。根據以往經驗，國常會提及降準之後，一般會在較短的時間內採取行動。這也就是説，央行可能會在最近的一段時間內進行降息。
來源：廣發固收
對於降準落地的時間，中信證券預計，降準很有可能在近期落地，明後兩天中國人民銀行或將宣佈降準安排。廣發證券認為，央行會在未來一週內推出降準。考慮到4月20日為納税申報截止日，降準公吿的發佈可能會早於税期，以對沖季初繳税大月税期走款對資金面的影響。
關於降準之後是否會進行降息，機構觀點卻是不太統一的。中信證券認為，不排除降息的可能；浙商證券認為，仍有降息可能，本月和下月的MLF續作日，即4月15日至5月16日時間區間內，均是降息窗口。
廣發證券劉鬱團隊則認為，兼顧外部平衡，降準不降息，推進寬信用。後續如穩增長壓力繼續上升，央行貨幣政策可能加碼的方向：（1）類似2018年的TMLF，採用接近定向降息的政策，支持民營及小微企業等特定部門；（2）類似2020年6月，經濟從疫情恢復過程中，下調支農支小再貸款利率。
開源固收陳曦團隊則認為，降息的邏輯與降準的邏輯是一致的，即疫情衝擊、股市下跌、地產疲軟等均提供了降息的合理性。
但降息的制約同樣存在，在美聯儲大幅加息、中美利率全面倒掛的背景下，中國央行降息確實存在出現副作用的可能。
持續更新中》》》
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