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今天市場的一些信息

作者 | 明野

數據支持 | 勾股大數據(www.gogudata.com)

【覆盤】

指數暴力反彈 疫情修復概念大漲

三大指數在券商消費帶領下午後集體反彈。截止收盤,滬指收漲1.46%,深成指收漲2.05%,創業板指收漲2.5%。北向資金淨買入91億元,兩市個股上漲家數3753家,下跌861家。

兩市個股普遍上漲,市場情緒及賺錢效應好轉,題材概念多點開花,經濟復甦主題概念股大放異彩。旅遊,酒店餐飲,免税批量漲停。酒店餐飲板塊漲幅9.84%,板塊個股基本全部漲停。旅遊板塊大漲7.81%,張家界,雲南旅遊,西安旅遊等十餘隻個股漲停。商超,倉儲物流亦走強,中國中免漲停。

金融股午後走高,其中又以券商股表現最為突出,紅塔證券等股漲停,東方財富漲6%。農業、地產、化肥逆勢走弱。港股方面,航空,汽車,旅遊,反彈明顯。蔚來9%,青島啤酒,奈雪,華潤啤酒漲幅均超5%。

【行業】

消費

上海新冠疫情出現好轉的跡象,新增患者人數首次出現單日新增下降。根據上海市衞健委通報數據,2022年4月11日0—24時,上海新增本土新冠肺炎確診病例994例和無症狀感染者22348例,其中273例確診病例為此前無症狀感染者轉歸,439例確診病例和21844例無症狀感染者在隔離管控中發現,其餘在相關風險人羣排查中發現。

4月以來上海報吿感染者病例數首次下降  

午後傳聞國務院選8個城市試點新的防疫政策,消費股大幅走強。食品飲料裏面,彈性最好的,個人覺得是啤酒,這個之前也説過了,啤酒不怎麼受宏觀經濟基本面影響,同時如果政府發消費券,也是促進大眾消費,而非高端消費,這點,啤酒勝白酒。從原材料上來説,啤酒的結構升級還有很大空間,也一直在推進,因而可以抵消部分原材料價格上漲的影響,這點啤酒勝調味品。從格局上來説,啤酒的競爭格局基本穩定,不似餐飲股,永無可能形成格局,這點啤酒比餐飲股號,只是短期餐飲股可能彈性好點,畢竟跌得慘。

在整個穩增長的板塊,基建、地產、消費上,更多呈現此消彼長的情況,因為整體基本面都沒有特別多的改善,更多是對政策友好的預期,所以也很難對穩增長這三個大塊有持續上行的判斷。另外今年的風險偏好使得估值彈性高的板塊和公司會持續受益,政策底、市場底、經濟底的演繹將會很極致。

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