國常會吹風！四月降準還是降息？
在面對國外局勢不明朗、疫情反覆帶來得的經濟下行壓力下，國內政策暖風頻吹。
昨日，國常會釋放多項重要信息。會議強調決定對特困行業實行階段性緩繳養老保險費政策，加大失業保險支持穩崗和培訓力度；部署適時運用貨幣政策工具，更加有效支持實體經濟發展。
最受金融市場關注的，莫過於會議提出要“適時靈活運用多種貨幣政策工具”、“加大穩健的貨幣政策實施力度”等貨幣政策。貨幣政策暫未明確表態降準降息，但提出讓利實體經濟，將更多運用結構性工具，支持三農、製造業、居民合理購房等需求。
3月以來市場對二降準降息的預期多次落空，此次國常會雖未釋放明確信號，但不少市場人士認為，美聯儲不排除最快在5月就開啟縮表，相較之下，本月是我國加大穩健貨幣政策實施力度較好的時間窗口。在具體操作上，全面降準、下調政策利率都有可能。
要適當放水，誰最嗨？當然還是前期嗷嗷待哺的房地產，以及穩增長的抓手大基建。
表現在盤面上，基建股早盤逆勢走強，地產板塊內做高低切，向地產產業鏈下游進行擴散，包括廚衞電器、鋼鐵，甚至蔓延到裝配式建築上。具體個股上，建研設計20cm漲停，寧波富達、四川雙馬水泥類標的漲停，三和管樁漲停，韓建河山等跟漲。
面對國常會吹風后，對於近期是否降準降息，機構有不一樣的聲音。
中信證券認為，4月降準降息的概率進一步加大。美聯儲不排除最快在5月就開啟縮表，相較之下，本月是我國加大穩健貨幣政策實施力度較好的時間窗口。在具體操作上，全面降準、下調政策利率都有可能。
不過，中金證券認為，近期降準的可能性似乎不大，但不排除降息的可能性，視疫情的演變與經濟走勢而定。年12月央行降準疊加上繳利潤，已經為銀行體系提供超過2萬億元的流動性，如果再考慮結構性貨幣政策的擴張力度，以上三項已經大體可以滿足銀行體系的流動性需求。
但目前在信貸供給增多、信貸需求疲弱的情況下，貸款加權利率或已延續下行，3月全國103城首套房貸利率單月降幅達2019年以來最大（13bp）。伴隨貸款投放加大的可能是存款成本上升，銀行息差收窄不利於實體利率進一步下行，銀行成本或有進一步下調的可能。
而浙商證券認為，貨幣政策工具偏向二季度降準，進一步降息的概率有限。浙商證券認為央行當前以穩增長為首要目標，維持穩健略寬鬆的貨幣政策基調，後續仍將多措並舉穩增長，寬鬆政策工具空間較大。考慮到疫情對我國經濟基本面衝擊的不確定性，我們認為貨幣政策工具偏向二季度降準。
對於降息，該機構認為概率不大，降準重點在於寬信用，降息重點在於降成本，後者並非當前核心訴求，且中美利差面臨階段性壓力，進一步降息的概率有限。
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