3月社融前瞻：預計社融增速10.4%
本文來自：倪軍金融與流動性研究，作者：王先爽
核心觀點
預計2022年3月社融增速10.4%：我們預計2022年3月末社融同比增速10.4%，較上月回升約0.2個百分點。預計3月社融當月增量約4.2萬億元，同比增加0.84萬億元。今年1、2月份社融增速明顯顛簸，預計3月份有所回升。
信貸方面：今年1月份信貸數據大幅超預期，主要是去年下半年寬信貸累積效應疊加銀行開門紅訴求共振形成；2月份信貸數據大幅低於預期，主要是由於去年高基數、地產銷售負增長滯後影響、以及1月份信貸開門紅透支等綜合原因導致。
進入3月份，地產銷售負增長滯後影響仍在，但去年高基數效應和年初透支效應消退，同時隨着月中金融穩定委員會召開，疊加季末財政投放可能加速，穩信貸政策力度加大，預計今年3月信貸增量會好於去年同期。我們預計2022年3月社融口徑信貸增量3萬億元，同比多增約0.25萬億元。
債券方面：穩增長之下，財政靠前發力，預計2022年3月政府債淨融資0.6萬億元，同比多增0.29萬億元。信用債方面，預計2022年3月信用債淨融資0.3萬億元，同比少增約0.08萬億元。
流動性展望：目前銀行間超儲不低，隨着季末財政投放，銀行間流動性進入充裕階段，短期降準概率下降。降息方面，市場有期待，但是政策面臨海外環境掣肘，預計公開市場操作降息空間越發有限，後續央行着力點可能還是通過壓降銀行負債成本引導貸款利率下行，如果經濟恢復明顯不及預期，存款利率的引導可能是一種選擇。信用端，目前政策繼續供給擴張，財政開始發力，基建逐漸加碼，地產政策試探放鬆，預計信用擴張會溫和回升，國內總量流動性趨勢無需擔憂。
投資建議：當前疫情反覆對經濟擾動較大，預計一季度經濟數據不及年初目標。但全年經濟增長目標仍在，這意味着當前經濟越差，後續政策發力需求越大。當前上市銀行業績穩健，資產質量夯實，在穩增長和穩地產政策基調，銀行板塊仍會有超額收益。
2022年3月新增社融主要分項預估：
人民幣貸款：預計新增約3萬億元（去年同期2.75萬億元）。信託+委託貸款：預計減少約0.1萬億元（去年同期減少0.18萬億元）。未貼現承兌匯票：預計增加0.1萬億元（去年同期減少0.23萬億元）企業債券：預計新增約0.3萬億元（去年同期爲0.38萬億元）。政府債券：預計新增約0.6萬億元（去年同期爲0.33萬億元）。
風險提示：（1）海外金融風險超預期；（2）疫情反覆超預期；（3）財政發力不及預期；（4）地產風險暴露超預期。
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