《大行報告》中金料港交所(00388.HK)首季盈利按年跌23% 按季則升10%
中金發表報告表示,就港交所(00388.HK)將於4月27日公布今年首季業績,預計公司首季總收入將按年下滑16%(按季則升6%)至50億港元,若剔除投資收益後主營收入按年下跌16%(按季則升7%)至46億港元,料其今年首季盈利按年下滑23%(按季升10%)至29.6億港元。該行指,港交所一方面短期業績波動主要受港股日均成交額所影響,另一方面是衍生品、上市、投資、存托管收入等起到一定平滑作用。
該行指,今年首季恆生指數、恆生科技指數分別下跌6%及19.6%、令港股市值較年初下滑8%至39萬億港元,由於換手率按季升17.8百分點至89%(未剔除二次上市美股市值),港股日均成交額(ADT)按季升16%至1,465億港元(按年於去年同期高基數下滑35%)。其中,南下ADT按年跌42%(按季則升27%)至355億港元、佔港股比重12.1%,北上ADT按年跌17%(按季下滑-5%至1,059億元、佔A股比重5.8%。
第二是衍生品市場,外部環境波動或帶來對衝套保需求提升,股指期貨ADV(全年日均交投)按年升21%(按季升40%至70.5萬張、其中MSCI A50的ADV達2.1萬張(平均名義本金13億美元),個股期權ADV表現與現貨市場波動趨同(按年下跌23%/按季則升25%)。
第三是LME商品成交量有所增長、按年升10%(按季升7%)。第四是上市方面,今年首季完成IPO
16家(按年下跌89%(按季跌67%)、融資額146億港幣(按年跌48%),包括首家SPAC上市企業。季末排隊企業157家,中金預計若後續市場回暖上市進程有望加快。
中金指,因調整北向ADT假設,下修對港交所2022年盈利2%至132億港元,維持2023年盈利預測162億港元基本不變,維持對其「跑贏行業」評級及目標價530港元,相當於今明兩年預測市盈率各51倍及42倍。
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