突發利空！雲南省取消隆基股份所享優惠電價，公司股價大跌，行業還值得投資嗎？
今日，光伏龍頭隆基股份股價大幅低開，現跌5.8%，報68.38元/股，總市值3702億元。公司股價自去年11月到達高點103.3元以後就一路下行，過程中雖有小幅反彈，但整體上卻是下跌的，現在的股價較前高已經近乎腰斬。
消息面上，隆基股份今日發佈公吿，稱於 2022 年 4 月 1 日收到《雲南省發展和改革委員會關於明確隆基綠能
科技股份有限公司有關用電價格的函》，根據國家有關部門清理優惠電價政策的要求，取消公司在雲南省享有的優惠電價政策
和措施，自 2021 年 9 月 1 日起，公司全部用電價格通過電力市場化交易方式形成，直接與電網企業結算。
受此影響，光伏板塊今日也表現較弱，奧特維、天合光能跌超5%，晶科能源、禾邁股份等跌超4%，通威股份、中來股份等得超3%。
影響幾何？
根據公吿，隆基股份於 2016 年 3 月 10 日與雲南省人民政府簽署了戰略合作框架協議，就公司在雲南省投資建設單晶硅棒硅片、高效電池組件、特色農業光伏電站產業鏈，帶動千億級單晶光伏產業集羣和雲南省給予相關優惠政策支持達成合作戰略合作意向。
自 2016 年開始，公司陸續分別與雲南省發改委、能源局，雲南省保山市人民政府、麗江市人民政府、楚雄彝族自治州人民政府、騰衝市人民政府、曲靖市人民政府等雲南省多地簽訂了項目投資協議，推動上述戰略協議的有效落實。截至2021 年末，公司已在雲南省形成約 67GW 的拉晶產能和 57GW 的切片產能，
麗江三期年產10GW 單晶硅棒建設項目、曲靖二期年產 20GW 單晶硅棒和 30GW
單晶硅片項目、曲靖年產 30GW 單晶電池項目尚未開工或投產。
對於取消優惠可能對公司業績造成的影響，隆基股份公吿顯示，截至 2021 年末，公司在雲南已投產的切片產能佔公司總產能的比例約為
54%。電費佔硅片全工序加工成本比例為15%左右，對公司利潤會產生一定不利影響。
另據國君電新的測算，目前單晶硅片非硅成本約為0.11元/W，按照目前含税電價預計0.25元/kWh，電力成本約為0.0165元/W，約佔總體非硅成本15%左右。如果測算電價分別上漲1/2/3毛/kWh，對應非硅成本提升約0.66/1.32/1.98分錢/W。
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