國泰君安：供不應求格局難扭轉，看好鋰價強勢
本文來自格隆匯專欄：國泰君安證券研究，作者：於嘉懿、董明斌/寧紫微
供不應求格局難扭轉，看好鋰價全年高位持續性。基本面上，短期鋰供需繼續緊張，鋰價或將維持強勢，且精礦端更為確定。1）期貨端：無錫盤碳酸鋰2204合約上週下降0.5%至46.45萬元/噸；2）鋰精礦：上週鋰精礦價格為 2810美元/噸，較前一週報價持平。雖然近期工信部提出持續加快國內鋰資源開發，但我們認為鋰供應增量短期並不會很快出現（更多影響遠期的供應預期），預計鋰現貨價格短期內仍易漲難跌。國內鈷原料價格短期穩定，鈷鹽冶煉企業價格調整邏輯轉向需求主導。鈷業公司多向電新下游製造業延升，構成鈷-鎳-前驅體-三元的一體化成本優勢，增強競爭壁壘。
鋰板塊價格走勢平穩，市場博弈心態濃重：上週明顯感受到上下游的博弈狀態加劇，對價格走勢的分歧加劇。中游對終端需求展望的不確定性，使得廠家更謹慎，於是在鋰現價50萬這樣的高位情況下，決定不採取增加庫存，甚至有意稍降庫存的措施。且碳酸鋰交易價範圍拉大，對於質量較次的碳酸鋰接受度降低。現貨成交價點單：工碳46-47.5萬/噸左右，電碳基本49萬以上到50萬。鋰鹽大廠的碳酸鋰價格上50萬。增持：中礦資源、永興材料，贛鋒鋰業，盛新鋰能、受益：融捷股份、江特電機、鹽湖股份、西藏礦業、天華超淨、科達製造、西藏珠峯、川能動力、藏格控股。
供需雙減，鈷價略回調：上週電解鈷需求端下游磁材廠多而小，抗風險能力差，在疫情期間賬款收回困難、疊加國內物流延遲的情況下，很多小廠受疫情影響停工，需求疲軟。上游雖然庫存持續減少，但是總體受制於需求疲軟，價格呈現下行。三月鈷中間品到港問題緩解，上游廠家原料問題得到改善，結合近期交易零星，鈷鹽廠普遍鈷鹽現貨累庫。受益：華友鈷業、寒鋭鈷業、洛陽鉬業、格林美。
原料價格居高，終端需求不確定性增高。製造原料成本暫穩，但仍然居高，對正極材料企業來説成本壓力較大。受新能源汽車陸續漲價原因，四月需求端趨勢不明，對正極材料企業來説目前持觀望謹慎態度進行採購。
風險提示：新能源汽車增速不及預期。新能源汽車用鋰佔鋰行業供給約1/3，且貢獻未來鋰行業大部分需求增量。若新能源汽車增速不及預期，鋰行業發展將大受影響。
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