國君農業：β確定性增強，大象也起舞
本文來自格隆匯專欄：國泰君安證券研究所，作者：鍾凱鋒 王豔君 等
一、本週觀點：
1、養殖：大象也起舞，繼續推薦生豬養殖板塊
上週豬價出欄均價小幅上升。根據湧益諮詢數據，上週生豬價格為12.08元/kg（上上週11.73元/kg），我們認為需求層面受疫情囤貨影響，供給層面受運輸不暢影響，往後看，疫情對價格是短期提振，但是中長期增加了主動、被動壓欄，壓欄的增重效應導致後續供給增加明顯大於當前的供給減少，價格壓力邊際更大，出清邏輯邊際更加順暢。
輪動效應、基本面確定性加速提升，大象也起舞。我們認為，在即將到來的二季度，生豬養殖大市值品種的表現將比一季度更加搶眼，主要有兩方面因素：1）輪動效應，前一階段小市值品種基於顯著的估值、倉位、市值優勢，表現搶眼，進入到二季度後，隨着大市值品種估值、倉位劣勢逐步消失甚至成為優勢，表現預計會顯著強於一季度，輪動表現可期；2）確定性加速，大市值品種對於確定性要求更高，而我們認為二季度確定性會加速，一方面是量變到質變，產能去化幅度有望突破閾值；另一方面，6月前後有望見到拐點，兩方面助力，確定性會明顯增強，大市值品種的認同度也會進一步加速。
2、種植業：景氣高位持續，關注主題機會
1）原油定方向，原油價格高位並且全面價格仍有望超預期，為種植農產品景氣奠定基調；2）供給定彈性，國內方面，基於供給週期位置和對外依存水平兩維度區分先後，豆類、玉米、白糖、小麥、稻穀等品種景氣將有不同程度表現，豆類對外依存度高，受國外影響大漲價明顯，小麥受到晚播影響，2022年預計產量有小幅下降，同時小麥價格上漲使得小麥替代玉米效應減弱，地緣事件影響玉米進口，玉米供需矛盾顯現，關注相關主題機會。
投資建議：推薦生豬養殖板塊：牧原股份、温氏股份、正邦科技、天邦股份、新希望、大北農、天康生物等，彈性標的：傲農生物、巨星農牧、唐人神等；推薦種植鏈玉米種業標的：大北農、隆平高科、荃銀高科；推薦三大龍頭牧原股份、海大集團、聖農發展。
風險提示：政策風險、養殖疫病風險、自然災害風險等。
二、行業數據一覽：
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
