國泰君安：高端白酒價值凸顯，把握時點
本文來自格隆匯專欄：國泰君安證券研究，作者：訾猛、李梓語
導讀：高端白酒平穩發展、韌性充分，短期經濟和疫情擾動有限，長期格局穩定，酒企均處於變革發展期，業績穩中有進趨勢明確，估值調整後配置價值凸顯。
投資建議：高端白酒韌性充分、穩健發展，行業競爭格局保持穩定，各家龍頭酒企持續變革、積極進取，業績穩中有進趨勢明確，當下估值水平具備較強吸引力，長期配置價值凸顯，建議增持：貴州茅台、五糧液、瀘州老窖。
高端白酒韌性充分，估值回落後價值凸顯。近期疫情擾動疊加經濟預期偏弱，市場對白酒行業基本面判斷偏負面，根據渠道調研來看，高端白酒消費主要集中在小範圍商務聚飲、禮贈、收藏等場景，韌性相對更強，且3月白酒消費淡季佔全年比重較小，受經濟與疫情擾動有限，全年穩增長下投資穩健發力帶動固定資產投資、房地產投資加速有望進一步拉動高端白酒需求，基本面向好趨勢不變。目前高端白酒對應2022年PE茅台35X、五糧液22X、老窖28X，估值回落提供配置機遇，其中五糧液已到估值底部，收益空間更為明顯。
渠道平穩運行，價盤迴歸良性。根據渠道調研，目前茅台回款進度35%左右，3月配額正在執行，回款與發貨保持良性進度，近期疫情復發疊加重啟電商平台影響，情緒擾動下茅台批價短期大幅波動，迴歸理性後目前茅台批價已逐步企穩回升、迴歸良性趨勢。五糧液普五目前啟動全國範圍停貨挺價，預計4-5月逐步向1000元推動，經典五糧液取消區域平台、搭建全國平台通過1-2個月時間實現市場淨化，實現價格體系上移。國窖3月1日結束停貨後執行新打款價，開門紅整體回款與發貨進度完成較快，且庫存保持良性，尚未開始大範圍回款，目前淡季仍以挺價為主。
龍頭鋭意進取，發展動力充分。1）茅台：自2021年9月以來多維改革動作持續落地，產品端推出珍品、茅台1935等完善價格體系，渠道端多元化、數字化持續推進，價格市場化發展趨勢明確，通過“五線發展”、“五合營銷”等清晰表達出改革路徑，長期量價發展主動權在握。2）五糧液：新班子到位後市場改革力度充分、執行力度加強，普五方面短期核心工作以提升批價、穩定渠道利潤為主，下一步將圍繞傳統渠道經銷商做精準投放、推動渠道轉型。經典五糧液短期不設任務目標，核心城市廠家直接運營，其他城市實現代理權和配額制稀缺。系列酒核心圍繞四大戰略品牌，實現價盤小幅提升。全年文化酒板塊有望加大力度，實現新增長點。3）老窖：國窖維持價格跟隨策略，量價平衡發展，中檔酒在產能、品質雙提升下延續品牌復興，三年維度長效激勵保證高增勢能。
風險提示：宏觀經濟大幅波動、核心市場疫情復發等。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
