如何看待茅台批價大幅波動？
本文來自格隆匯專欄：國泰君安證券研究，作者：國君訾猛團隊
核心觀點
高端白酒渠道跟蹤：茅台批價繼續下跌，五糧液老窖保持穩定。1）茅台：本週22年整箱飛天批價2700-2950元、22年散瓶飛天批價2500-2680元左右，環比繼續下滑，回款與發貨保持穩定節奏，茅台1935批價批價1380-1440元，近期經銷商可在專賣店按1088元拿貨。2）五糧液：普五批價980元左右，繼續保持穩定，近期核心單品普五建議零售價上調100元至1499元，挺價意圖明確，作為濃香第一品牌有望加速品牌價值迴歸，強化管控下批價有望迎來積極走勢。3）國窖：批價910-920元，近期打款價格提升、庫存處於良性，價格上堅持跟隨戰略。
如何看待茅台批價大幅波動：情緒干擾，無礙發展，立足長遠。本週茅台批價出現較大波動，目前2022年整箱批價維持在2700元左右、散瓶批價維持在2500元左右。
覆盤近兩週飛天批價日度走勢：1）從3月9日起茅台批價進入下行區間，與深圳、上海等核心市場疫情復發節奏基本一致，受消費淡季、疫情復發、3月發貨節奏等因素影響前期批價小幅波動、仍處於正常區間。2）3月24日起，受茅台重啟電商的影響，茅台批價出現大幅下跌。
短期波動源起情緒擾動，行業基本面趨勢並未惡化：1）從短期看，茅台批價大幅下跌更多來源於情緒影響，但有利於開瓶率提升和長期價格體系優化，下跌的過程中箱茅（金融屬性>消費屬性）和散茅（消費屬性>金融屬性）的價差正在逐步縮小，另一方面經銷商本身庫存較低，通過我們和大量經銷商交流得知即便庫存跌價，但有利於長期價格體系和渠道體系健康發展。2）目前散瓶批價已跌至2021年同期水平，並且2500元左右基本達到經銷商羣體心理價位低點，批價企穩後預計下週有望逐步觸底回升。3）本輪電商的核心在於改革優化，而非全盤衝擊。本輪茅台重啟電商預計3月31日上線試運行，選取的產品主要為非標產品（包括虎茅、珍品、茅台1935等），選取的方式預計首先在專賣店經銷商進行試運行，電商重啟作為本輪營銷體系改革落地的新一舉措，整體推進保持穩健思路，有利於量價調整和噸價提升，且丁雄軍董事長前期明確強調”深耕自營、社會、總經銷等多種渠道”，有望實現通過多維渠道協同從而形成銷售合力。在本輪改革措施持續落地後，茅台需求剛性的同時供給調整能力正在持續凸顯（例如非標、茅台1935自營店拿貨已形成產品體系與渠道體系聯動調控）。4）五糧液、老窖批價並未出現大幅波動，整體挺價趨勢延續，高端白酒基本面並未出現實質性惡化。
高端平穩、次高端擴容、區域加速的行業趨勢有望延續。白酒行業長期穩健運行趨勢不變，需求端受益於收入增長、財富效應等因素結構升級趨勢延續，根據招商銀行數據中高收入人羣持續擴容將支撐高端需求旺盛、次高端擴容，後續疫情邊際改善後，區域酒企有望迎來速修復。旺季奠定一季報趨勢，長期基本面保持良性，調整迎來配置機遇，重點佈局三條主線：1）堅守高端價值：貴州茅台、五糧液、瀘州老窖；2）高成長標的：山西汾酒、捨得酒業、酒鬼酒；3）區域白酒：迎駕貢酒、口子窖、古井貢酒、伊力特等。
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