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建銀國際料俄烏衝突加速去美元化 美匯貶值預期升溫刺激更高通脹
阿思達克 03-24 15:18
建銀國際發表報告指,俄烏衝突將產生深遠的地緣政治和經濟影響,使通脹居高不下。最重要的是,從資產配置的角度來看,這場衝突將加速去美元化。最初,這將發生在俄羅斯尋求通過與中國、印度和其他國家進行黃金、人民幣或非美元貨幣的借條交易,避免其外匯儲備以及連接SWIFT受到影響。當看到危機時期動用外匯儲備的渠道可能受阻之後,變相鼓勵其他國家想方設法使外匯儲備多元化,減少持有美元及其西方盟友的貨幣。他們也會更願意交易和持有人民幣,也更願意持有黃金。 報告稱,無論什麼制度開始取代美元的主導地位,它都將是一個過程,而不是一個事件。在向新的全球貨幣體系過渡的過程中,投資者面臨著一段較長的不確定時期。最有可能的長期後果將導致美元疲軟、美國國債收益率承受上行壓力、更高的通脹、以及增加人民幣在貿易中的使用和作為儲備貨幣的使用。 以上所述的轉型的速度將在一定程度上取決於中國。如果中國準備讓人民幣升值並維持可觀的經常賬戶赤字,離岸人民幣貸款將會增加,從而創造出歐洲美元市場之外的另一種選擇,並加速削弱美元體系。然而,中國的重商主義傾向表明,這種可能性不太可能出現。 建銀國際稱,儘管一些人開始談論布雷頓森林體系III,但現實情況是,要真正取代美元體系仍需數年時間。儘管如此,對美元貶值的預期增加,將足以鞏固更高的美國通脹預期,並降低對美國國債的興趣。在這種情況下,投資組合需要比以前更好的對抗通脹,更少的美元敞口和更大的人民幣敞口。實現這一目標的最佳方式是,設定波動性限制的同時,適度增加對美國通脹掛鉤債券和黃金的投資,同時增加一定的中國政府債券的配置。
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