瑞銀:料香港今年零售額最多跌5% 予恆隆(0010.HK)"買入"評級
瑞銀髮研報指,香港新冠確診數字在3月上旬達到高峯並逐漸下跌,相信商場客流量已見底,本地消費將逐步恢復。假設Omicron疫情在7月前得到控制,預計2022年上半年的香港零售總額或出現低雙位數的下滑。不過,隨着港府派發一萬元電子消費券,相信下半年零售銷售將錄強勁復甦,料將按年增長7%。該行指,儘管新冠疫情嚴重及去年基數較高,但預料2022年香港零售額僅下降0至5%。
瑞銀相信,領展(0823.HK)能抓住尚未完全反映的本地消費復甦,考慮到近期的收購和保守估算的6億元租金優惠,料其每基金單位分派在2021至24年的複合年增長率為5%。該行予恆隆(0010.HK)“買入”評級,以反映內地及本港的潛在消費復甦。同時,該行重申九倉置業(1997.HK)“中性”評級,因為其估值已完全反映當地消費復甦,以及温和的旅客消費復甦。
瑞銀認為,最終的租金減免優惠將取決於租户的銷售額,因為只有當租金與銷售比率降至可持續水平時,租户才會留下來,惟優惠幅度亦會對經營零售租賃業務的地產商構成下行風險。
瑞銀預期,內地與香港通關的時間將由第二季延遲至第四季,其後內地遊客消費復甦或進一步支持香港零售總額增長。惟該行預計到2025年,正常化的香港零售額將僅達到4300億港元,相當於2021至25年的複合年增長率為5%,較2018年的高峯低11%。因為旅遊消費的復甦屬漸進形式,快速增長的海南免税銷售或影響對內地遊客在港過夜消費。同時,從長遠來看,深圳和廣州市中心免税店或會進一步蠶食內地遊客的即日消費。
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