《大行報告》高盛料港銀股今年可迎來轉折點 最看好中銀香港(02388.HK)
高盛發表研究報告指,美聯儲宣布加息,為疫情爆發以來首次,預測今年將共加息加息175個基點,明年再加息100個基點。
對於香港本地銀行,高盛預計利率上升將推高淨息差,成為2023至2024年主要盈利驅動力,預期對於中銀香港(02388.HK)及恆生銀行(00011.HK),加息將於2024年推動淨息差擴張約45個基點及股本回報率改善約4個百分點。該行指,在香港相對寬鬆的流動性以及目前較弱的宏觀環境,相較今年,銀行到2023至2024年將更能從利率上升中受惠。
高盛預計,今年港銀將迎來拐點,由過去幾年的盈利下跌改善至未來兩年盈利恢復強勁增長的前景,不過由於高盛削減貸款增長、降低非利息收入並適度提高信貸成本預測,基於當前市場疲軟,將今年本地銀行平均每股盈利預測下調6%,並將2023至2024年每股盈利預測及目標價下調約1%至2%,預期未來宏觀經濟應將因消費情緒回升而有所改善。
該行指,香港本地銀行股價年初至今累升約2%,跑贏恆指同期表現,認為加息周期第二階段已經開始,行業內最看好中銀香港,予「買入」評級,列入確信買入名單,目標價38元;同時對恆生給予「中性」評級,目標價162元。
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