《即日市評》恆指再升7%成交續破三千億 內房股彈高
受科網股升勢帶動下,港股今日持續向上。美聯儲局宣佈加息四分一釐,是自2018年以來首次加息,美聯儲局點陣圖顯示今年底聯邦基金利率將升至1.75%至2%,這相當於聯儲局今年剩餘6次議息會議中的每一次都將利率上調25個點子,美股道指及納指昨晚各升1.6%及3.8%。執筆之時美國十年期國債孳息率跌至2.132釐,美匯指數跌至98.28,美股道指期貨最新跌38或0.11%,納指期貨最新跌0.2%。今早人民幣人幣中間價上調394點報6.3406兌一美元,上證綜指全日升44點或1.4%收3,215點,深證成指升2.4%,滬深兩市成交額共1.28萬億人民幣。
港股升勢延續,恆指高開1,343點,早段升幅曾收窄至699點一度低見20,786點,其後升幅再度擴大,並以全日高位21,501點收市,上升1,413點或7%,連升兩日(累升3,086點或16.8%)。國指今日升518點或7.5%,收7,407點;恆生科技指數升329點或7.7%,收4,572點。大市全日成交總額3,009.59億元,滬港通南下交易淨流出17.15億元人民幣,深港通南下交易淨流入41.57億元人民幣。
【恆指兩連升 內房股彈高】
內房股抽上,融創中國(01918.HK)股價急升59%,龍光(03380.HK)急升42.7%,中國海外(00688.HK)揚7.4%。中國銀保監會主席郭樹清表示,鼓勵機構穩妥有序開展併購貸款,重點支持優質房企兼併收購困難房企優質項目,促進房地產業良性循環和健康發展。花旗則認爲,儘管中央高層官員基調令人鼓舞,但並未帶來任何實質性的重大政策改變,幾乎無助受債務困擾的房企。該行指中海外及旭輝(00884.HK) 「性價比」較高,認爲中海外、華潤置地(01109.HK)、龍湖集團(00960.HK)是行內贏家。
花旗認爲,內地新一波疫情導致在深圳和上海的封城,並且有蔓延跡象,將對銷售產生重大負面影響,估計3月份銷售按年下跌50%,之前預測爲下跌40%,在延遲房產稅試行後,預計潛在需求回升時間延遲至大約6月。該行認爲,由於銷售疲軟和業績推動,預計3月份內房股表現會波動,將從政策驅動轉向銷售驅動。
【美聯儲加息 匯控渣打漲】
港股今日市寬續向好,主板股票的升跌比率爲38比8(上日爲39比7),上升股份1,623只(升幅6.6%),恆指成份股今日64只股份上升,下跌股份2只,升跌比率爲97比3(上日爲82比17);大市今日錄沽空570.3億元,佔可沽空股份成交額2,688.7億的21.2%(上日爲20.817%)。
美國加息,匯控(00005.HK)升4.1%報51.2元,渣打(02888.HK)升6.4%報52.15元。匯豐環球研究發表報告指,美聯儲聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)在兩日議息會議後,一如預期將政策利率上調25個基點。而委員會新的點陣圖表明至2023年底將出現2.75%的「限制性」聯邦基金利率,市場估計的則爲2.375%的「中性」利率。
匯豐研究現時預測,美聯儲今年將加息175個基點,高於早前預期的150個基點,明年的加息幅度預測亦由50個基點增至75個基點。縮表方面,該行繼續預計將於今年5月或6月的政策會議上宣佈,並可能會於宣佈後的下個月開始縮減資產負債表。
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