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花旗:升中海油(0883.HK)目標價至16港元,受惠於油價高企

花旗發研報指,中國海洋石油(0883.HK)在油價上漲的環境下是“三桶油”中的主要受益者,因為中海油為純上游企業,原油產量佔總產量的80%,亦有非常慷慨的派息政策,料今年布蘭特原油的價格為89美元,估計中海油的每股盈利將達2.3元人民幣,這意味着每股派息為1.1港元或11.5%的股息率,將目標價由11.9港元上調34.5%至16港元,予“買入”評級。

該行表示,鑑於俄羅斯與烏克蘭衝突導致油價高企,重新調整對“三桶油”的排序依次為中海油、中石化(0386.Hk)以及中石油(0857.HK),若油價繼續上漲,中海油的盈利將繼續上升,儘管預計今年將出現通脹環境,但估計中海油的每桶油主要成本能保持在31美元具競爭力的水平。

該行續指,公司的產量增長有望在2025年達到日產量為200萬桶,管理層指引今年的產量目標為6億至6.1億桶,意味着按年增長6.7%,而在明年和2024年,管理層預計產量將再增長6.7%及6.3%。該行提及,隨着上調今年及明年對布蘭特原油價格的預測分別至每桶89美元及59美元,上調今年及明年的盈利預測分別為31%及8%。

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