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交銀國際洪灝:外資減持中國國債下 港股市場淨買入已跌至歷史最低點
阿思達克 03-14 13:59
交銀國際研究部主管洪灝發表報告表示,近期港股的拋售潮史上最猛烈之一,機構和個人投資者正無選擇地拋售。彌漫市場的悲觀情緒的消化仍有待時日,恆指築底非一日之功。但他指港匯的遠期點數預示著投資者長期的信心,《外國公司問責法案》重壓下,料中概股將加速回歸,雖然港股流動性短期吃緊,但是這些優秀中概股的回歸將終得其所。 該行考察了跨資產和跨投資者群體的持股情況,以衡量投資者增持或減持中國資產的意願。首先,交銀國際考察了外資持有中國國債的變化。從數據顯示,自2021年初以來,外國投資者購買中國國債的速度一直在放緩,並且在今年2月徹底轉為資金外流。實際上,2月從中國國債流出的350億美元,是有數據以來規模最大的一次單月流出。 這可能是由於俄羅斯央行需要出售其持有的部分中國國債以籌集現金,因美國凍結其外匯儲備。但這也必定存在一部分資金減持、國外賬戶贖回的情況。畢竟,一些國際大行已經下調了中國國債評級,並建議客戶減持。 洪灝指,在外資減持中國國債的衝擊下,在岸和離岸市場都湧現了拋售潮,看到香港市場淨買入已然跌至歷史最低點,並已盤桓於此數月。與此同時,該行的自下而上的數據匯總表明,在股票層面,機構投資者和個人投資者都在拋售港股,雖然淨買入現階段已經在歷史低點持續數月,但這種情況往往領先恆指最終觸底的時刻約三個月以上。 洪灝表示,審視了港匯遠期點數的變化,出人意料的是,盡管悲觀論調甚囂塵上,港匯遠期點數的變化與對香港未來信心高漲的時期相吻合,如2007年和2017年;而相悖於信心低迷的時期,如2005年、2016年初和2020年初。歷史上,港匯遠期點數與恆指的回報率密切相關。盡管現階段恆指一蹶不振,但人們對香港未來的信心似乎並未減弱。
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