瑞銀:中概股或已調整過度 料港或放寬上市條件引小型ADR迴歸
瑞銀髮表中國市場策略報吿表示,消息導致在美上市的中概股於過去兩個交易日股價挫20%,該行對市場相關沽壓感到驚訝,顯示投資者情緒低迷,但料隨着政府刺激措施推出、企業未來盈利可迎回升勢頭,將可為預測未來一年市盈率估值已處八年低位的MSCI中國指數帶來支持,認為市場拋售已過度。
該行指,機構投資者似乎是這次中概股主要賣家,但大型的中概股已大多在香港雙重上市,投資者可以輕鬆地將其持有的ADR轉換為H股,而因授權限制不能轉換ADR為H股的相信只佔整體ADR的3-5%。
瑞銀指,對於已作雙重上市的中概股,近三個月機構投資者對相關中概股的ADR所有權下降了2.6個百分點,但同時,機構投資者在香港上市部分持股增加0.9個百分點,表明部分投資者已將其ADR轉換為H股。從港交所(0388.HK)中央結算系統數據也顯示,雙重上市公司的香港上市部分已從流通股的48%增加到53%,而轉換大多在京東(9618.HK)、阿里巴巴(9988.HK) 和理想汽車(2015.HK)發生。
該行表示,多數的ADR(52家公司佔ADR總市值的96%,包括20家已經雙重上市的公司)目前有資格在香港第二上市。此外,香港證券交易所和監管機構正在討論可能放寬未通過盈利測試的“科技創新”公司上市規則。假設最終要求與適用於生物技術公司的要求相似(市值超過15億港元),料可新增約 41家中國ADR公司(相當於佔中國ADR總市值2%)可能有資格在香港上市。
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