再創新低!恆指破20000點,恆生科技破4000點,港股暴跌何時休?
低開、大跌、科技股踩踏,是今天上午港股的成色。
作為小三市場,港股不是看美股的面色,就是看大A的面色,“做人”着實艱難。
上週五已經跌過一輪,雖然尾盤強勢V型反轉,但始終剛不過美股。上週五夜,美股中概股繼續下泄,今天上午的港股馬上有反應。
盤面上,可謂跟足了美國中概股的表現,開盤時,電動車跌幅基本達到雙位數,互聯網巨頭繼續深跌,加上疫情的影響,一種消費股也非常萎靡。
最終,在一種新經濟股的大跌“助攻”下,恆生指數跌破20000點,恆生科技指數跌破4000點,雙雙創下2016年(恆生科技指數創立)之後的新低。
恆生指數走勢

恆生科技指數走勢

市況低迷之下,不少藍籌、白馬都一夜回到解放前。
不過,具體地看,暴跌下的港股,尤其是科技股,其實也呈現出一定的結構性,除了邏輯受到破壞的,比如互聯網、教育、生物醫藥,剩下的特別是成長股,像電動車、鋰電、新能源,儘管股價不斷下挫,但相比起前兩年的瘋狂,其實回調幅度並不令人吃驚。
如電動車,新勢力們過去一年強勢到沒朋友,但實際上,這些公司基本都處在虧損狀態,而且考慮到它們正處於研發創新、產能擴張、鋪銷售渠道和售後渠道的階段,不管是研發開支、資本開支、銷售開支,都會一直處在高位,所以虧損情況很難在幾年內獲得改善,在盈利能力不能給予太多期待,所以這些股票即使繼續下跌,也不足為奇,正如它們漲上去的時候不需要太多理由,現在跌下來,其實也不需要太多理由。
再如鋰電,只要把贛鋒的股價拉回2019年,你會發現,它最低的時候只有8塊錢,然後這兩年像坐上火箭,股價漲了20多倍,現在跌回100塊以下,加上本身就是週期股,你能説它腰斬很慘嗎?
現在的港股市場,尤其是科技股方面,看着有點尷尬,曾經的中國版“納斯達克”,現在跌成這樣子,也會令人懷疑人生。
到底港股還要跌到什麼時候?
其實,如果看股價和估值,對比歷年的數據,港股確實已經具備一定的吸引力,我相信短期主要還是市場氣氛,以及世界趨勢的問題比較多,所以不排除現在的港股有過度反應的嫌疑。
如果長線地看,機會也會逐漸顯現出來。不過,短期看,風險係數仍然相當高,國內方面,來自疫情的影響;國外,是俄烏戰爭走勢。如果還要加一條,那就是美國對於中概股的態度問題,尤其是處於大國博弈的當下,後面如何發展,還不好説。
港股儘管已經比較慘,但這些因素如果沒有很好地解決,短期的壓制因素仍然無法消除,市場都很難有觸底反彈的機會。
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