中信建投:出口在為內需回暖爭取時間
本文來自格隆匯專欄:中信建投宏觀固收黃文濤,作者:黃文濤 錢偉
1-2月貿易數據點評
出口可能是今年國內經濟增長全年實現穩定的一個核心平滑器:當下出口保持強勢,實際上正在為消費回暖、財政蓄力、地產反彈等爭取時間;而出口動能逆轉時,若穩增長壓力依舊,可能會觸發政策對消費、投資更大程度的支持。
開年出口維持強勢。1-2月出口(美元計價)同比增長16.3%,雖然增速較去年12月回落4個百分點左右,但主要由高基數造成,實際出口動能仍然非常強勁。首先,去年1-2月出口同比增速高達60%。環比角度看,去年出口超預期主要集中在下半年,12月出口絕對規模3400億美元是歷史高點,但今年1-2月環比仍有亮眼的表現,增速-20%雖然略低於去年同期-17%,但仍高於2017-2019年,短期動能趨勢未見衰減。其次,韓國和越南兩個對標國開年出口增速均有所走弱,國內出口增速下行幅度並不算大。出口目的地上,美國增速回落至13.8%,歐盟維持在20%以上,但去年同期美國基數顯著高於歐盟,短期美國零售仍然是重要支撐。一帶一路和RCEP國家對出口的支撐也在顯現,一帶一路國家出口增速高出整體近5個百分點。
運輸不暢、美國零售強勁、訂單轉移、Omicron衝擊減緩、通脹高位等因素繼續支撐出口。
年初以來的各項相關指標看,出口開門紅並不意外。整體需求方面,Omicron衝擊在聖誕新年假期期間,確實對歐美消費起到明顯抑制,但隨後疫情衝擊緩解,歐美病例和重症數不斷下降,消費再度恢復。例如,美國PMI從1月的57.6反彈至2月的58.6,歐元區從58上升至58.45,2月美國零售環比增長3.7%,是近三個季度的最高值。供應鏈方面,儘管近一個季度有緩解跡象,但離完全暢通仍有距離,這個背景下,提前採購和訂單轉移等情況繼續存在。價格方面,芯片、存儲等價格繼續上行,美國1月物價環比再度上行至0.5%以上,受俄烏危機影響油價中樞從80美元左右抬升至100美元以上,價格對出口貨值的貢獻預計仍強。
短期看,出口依然是最具確定性的一個部門,在消費復甦受阻、基建發力存疑的背景下,穩增長的主力仍需要依賴出口。
出口的確定性來自於幾個方面:首先供應鏈的緩解需要較長時間,全球地緣政治衝擊下,需要的時間可能再度延長,這在短期仍然是有利因素。其次是通脹短期大幅回落的空間或在收窄,油價上漲或對全球通脹預期產生干擾。最後,海外需求在剛剛走出Omicron背景下,可能還能延續一段時間。
但是,下半年出口的壓力仍然無法排除。一是去年下半年出口基數被大幅抬升,長期維持超趨勢增長的難度不言而喻。二是除了能源價格,在財政和貨幣緊縮背景下,價格對貨值的支撐總有風險。三是海外衰退的擔憂愈發增加,消費長期保持高增長,缺乏有力的證據。
風險提示:疫情惡化超預期。
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