中信建投：在高波動市場中選擇黃金
本文來自格隆匯專欄：中信建投丁魯明，作者：丁魯明、陳韻陽
市場展現出極度割裂的定價：商品以歷史少見的波動率暴漲，而美債收益率反而出現“牛平”的特徵，3月加息預期顯著降温，黃金繼續上漲，但權益市場沒有定價加息預期降温的利好，資金去後週期板塊避險。這種極度割裂的定價表現出當前主要矛盾是戰爭帶來的不確定性，同時在滯與脹的抉擇中，市場並未進一步定價“通脹-加息預期”螺旋式上升，反而對經濟給了更大的權重。因此當前等待衝突結束，市場會迴歸到原有的主線邏輯。繼續追漲與戰爭相關的商品不是最好的選擇，增配前期超跌的權益更為合適。
權益資產：等待衝突結束，權益上行脈衝不會缺席
美國：美債利率拐頭向下，加息預期降温，美股近期回調主要來源於俄烏衝突帶來的情緒衝擊，待衝突結束，美股依然能夠有一波上行脈衝，反彈期以前期超跌的納指與半導體作為首選。中期，美國經濟有衰退風險，當衰退進入量價齊跌殺盈利階段時，美股還會有一波中期回落。
中國：節後A股反彈力度很弱，但主要源於俄烏衝突升級帶來的情緒衝擊，我們的真實盈利指數在去年12月-今年1月回落後，將在今年2-4月持續反彈，意味着短期A股具備基本面支撐。當下A股用震盪來消耗外圍的利空，若衝突結束，則指數可以出現一波上行脈衝。
固定收益：中債利率震盪反彈
美國：近期油價飆升，美債收益率反而下降，不僅有戰爭帶來的不確定性因素，也有美國經濟即將加速放緩的週期因素。戰爭結束後，預計美債利率先有短期反彈，但隨後回到經濟放緩的核心邏輯，下一個配置時點是3月議息會議後。
中國：近期短債調整明顯大於長債，反映市場對此前過於寬鬆的預期修正，寬信用對經濟有季度級別刺激作用，3月利率仍然趨於震盪反彈，預計4月有相對好一點的配置窗口。
大宗商品：止盈戰爭相關商品，保留黃金與國內工業品的戰略配置
CRB：當前與戰爭相關的商品已經脱離基本面暴漲，歷史最極端的back結構反應極強的投機情緒，建議適度止盈。國內政策轉向穩增長，地產景氣度有望修復，國內工業品存在繼續反彈需求。
黃金：黃金也是博弈俄烏衝突的品種，短期可能出現劇烈波動。從年度維度看，戰略做多黃金的邏輯依然順暢，美國經濟衰退、美聯儲難有更激進的加息是黃金牛市的底牌。
地產：實際利率上行施壓美國地產，中國地產景氣度有望底部反彈
美國：去年底以來實際利率的快速上行將施壓美國地產。
中國：近期地產高頻數據仍然較為低迷，但部分城市調控政策有所放鬆，貸款利率下行，地產景氣度有望底部回升。
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