《大行報告》富瑞下調阿裏(09988.HK)目標價至277元 評級「買入」
富瑞發表研究報告指,阿裏巴巴(09988.HK)第三財季收入符合預期,非國際會計準則下盈利超出預期,雖然線上購物行業面臨宏觀經濟下行影響,但預計阿裏將繼續通過細分策略,提升消費者體驗,預期淘寶特價版、淘菜菜在低線城市的滲透率穩步提升。
該行指出,阿裏將重點從獲取新用戶轉向留住用戶、提升ARPU及深化跨品類滲透,以獲取更多市場份額,其中淘寶特價版爲新用戶獲取貢獻不少,預期淘寶特價版及淘菜未來業務重心將轉向質量增長,未來幾季經營虧損或將收窄。
上季阿裏核心業務客戶管理收入(CMR)按年下跌1%,GMV錄單位數增長,主要由於集團對商家補貼增加及部分服務費用戰略性降低。富瑞認爲,阿裏雲持續投資拓展國際基礎設施,於全球範圍加強雲計算的投資,收入變得更多元化,非互聯網行業貢獻增加;另外在物流網絡建設亦趨向全球化。
富瑞重申對阿裏的「買入」評級,目標價由287元下調至277元,認爲未來主要風險包括宏觀經濟嚴重放緩,影響網購行業增長、用戶增長低於預期以及各行業或遭受嚴格監管。
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