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一文綜合券商對恆生(00011.HK)公布去年業績後最新觀點及目標價
恆生銀行(00011.HK)昨(22日)中午公布去年業績遜預期,昨股價急挫10.2%後,今早股價靠穩。券商富瑞指恆生銀行去年下半年盈利按年跌33%(按半年跌44%),指收入疲弱及撥備較高,料市場對恆生去年業績反應負面,下調對其目標價由185元降至170元,維持「買入」評級,並料其股價在140元水平有支持。 恆生去年除稅前溢利減少16%至163.85億元,低於本網綜合6間券商料介乎171.45億元至202.2億元。第四次中期股息為每股1.8元,去年每股派息合共為5.1元,亦低於本網綜合4間券商預測料全年每股股息介乎每股5.5元至5.91元。 該行扣除預期信貸損失變動及其他信貸減值提撥前之營業收入淨額減少8%至331.82億元。每股盈利減少17%至每股6.93元。恆生非利息收入按年增長2%至93.6億元;雖然資產負債表有穩健增長,而賺取利息之平均資產亦上升2.7%,淨利息收入仍然減少11%至238.22億元,反映利率環境帶來之不利影響。 【業績遜預期 內房撥備高】 瑞銀表示,恆生銀行去年稅後盈利133億元按年跌17.1%,低於該行及市場同業預期各15%及18%,即去年下半年淨利潤按年下滑33%,主要受到撥備明顯上升及非利息收入疲弱所影響。該行指恆生銀行四次中期股息為每股1.8元,低於市場原預期23%,並對其來自內房相關撥備較高令人意外,決定下調對恆生銀行今年每股盈利預測12%,但維持對其「買入」投資評級及目標價178元。 花旗發表報告指出,恆生銀行去年下半年淨利潤55億元,較上半年少36%,按年跌23%,較市場預期的低29%,亦較該行預期低15%,相信主要由於受收入疲弱及信貸損失撥備增加的影響。恆生第四次中期股息為每股1.8元,較預期的2.4元少。非利息收入與上半年持平,但較預期低4.5%,認為恆生2022財年的前景很可能因本港爆發疫情而相對謹慎。該行料市場同業將下調恆生今年預測,因去年下半年業績遜預期,從恆生銀行受到內地商業房地產撥備所拖累,料中銀香港(02388.HK)亦有相關業務下調預測的風險。 ------------------------------------ 下表列出5間券商對其投資評級及目標價: 券商│投資評級│目標價(港元) 花旗│中性│180元 星展│買入│173元->178元 瑞銀│買入│178元 富瑞│買入│185->170元 摩根士丹利│減持│140.5->138.9元 券商│觀點 花旗│去年下半年業績遠遜預期 因收入疲弱及信貸損失撥備增加 星展│去年業績遜預期,但上調今年派息比率至69% 瑞銀│內房債務令撥備提高,收入疲軟業績遜預期 富瑞│去年下半年收入疲軟,撥備急 摩根士丹利│信貸損失上升拖累非利息收入疲軟,下調對其2022年至2024年盈測
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