國泰君安：天然鑽石供不應求，培育鑽石景氣向上
本文來自格隆匯專欄：國泰君安證券研究，作者：劉越男、蘇穎
上兩週培育鑽石板塊個股漲幅顯著，主要受到2022年1月印度中游培育鑽石進出口數據提振，疊加國內黃金珠寶1月至春節期間銷售表現超預期。目前，天然鑽石由於銷售旺季下游需求旺盛，疊加疫情上游供應短缺，供不應求帶來價格持續上漲，推升整體銷售額。目前：①在鑽石整體行業需求旺季，且疫情影響上游供應嚴重不足的背景下，天然鑽石Rapaport呈現成品鑽全面價格上漲，目前培育鑽石定價體系依託Rapaport報價；②培育鑽石海外下游需求旺盛，仍持續處於供不應求狀態，且國內消費者觸達提升空間大，產業呈現長期向好態勢。
消費渠道催化密集釋放，基於三大驅動因素看好行業持續高增。①上游產能供給呈階梯式穩步提升，高品級產品供不應求狀態持續；②消費端首批單店模型數據持續驗證，國內傳統珠寶商及新興品牌有望逐步進入備貨週期；③下游消費需求確定性逐步提升，資金投入驅動上游設備商擴產節奏超預期，業績有望逐步釋放。
我們認為，本輪培育鑽石行業爆發顯著區別於此前，主要是國外消費終端為提升滲透率，渠道加價倍率顯著下降帶來的需求側爆發，以價換量的需求確定性驗證後，行業高速發展具備強持續性特點。
隨着國內培育鑽石品牌消費終端的迅速推進，消費者終端觸達面將顯著提升，渠道備貨需求疊加消費終端需求確定性進一步提升，上游產能穩步擴張有望帶來業績顯著釋放。整體看，行業滲透率提升目前僅處於快速提升的起步階段，保守對標藍寶石預計至少10-15%的提升空間，高增紅利有望在上下游產業鏈中持續交叉驗證。短期渠道將迎來備貨週期，長期需求確定性即將迎來逐月逐季驗證，值得期待。
風險提示
宏觀經濟和市場需求波動的風險。市場需求受到宏觀經濟及政策等多方面因素的影響，如未來出現宏觀經濟下滑、政策調整等不利因素造成市場需求下降，可能導致培育鑽石價格出現大幅波動。
行業競爭加劇的風險。培育鑽石需求崛起迅速，上下游積極參與佈局，行業競爭可能加劇。
產能擴張及下游需求不及預期的風險。培育鑽石廠商存在產能擴張不及預期的風險，且培育鑽石作為消費新興選擇，可能存在市場接受度不及預期的風險。
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