《大行報告》花旗上調恆生(00011.HK)目標價至180元 評級「中性」
恆生銀行(00011.HK)將於明日(22日)公布去年全年業績。花旗將恆生2021年每股盈利(EPS)預測下調1%,將2022年每股盈利預測下調約8%,但將2023和2024年每股盈利預測分別上調約2%和17%,因為較高的利率將抵銷了較高的撥備。該行將恆生目標價由155元上調至180元,維持「中性」評級,預期2024年股本回報率為13.3%。
花旗估計,恆生下半年淨息差較上半年下跌4個基點,預計淨利息收入與上半年基本持平,貸款增長抵銷淨息差壓力,市場焦點可能圍繞恆生未來的淨息差前景。該行預測恆生2022年淨息差為1.6%,按年增長11個基點,2024年淨息差預測為2.15%,接近疫情前水平。
花旗預計,恆生2021年下半年盈利較上半年下跌25% 、按年下跌10%,非利息收入可能較上半年,由於股市交投量放緩、股市下跌,導致更廣泛的風險規避,可能影響與財富相關的費用收入和保險業務表現,在疫情下關閉分行也可能影響與保險相關的費用收入。
花旗認為,恆生可能會在2021年下半年增加與內地信貸敞口相關的撥備,約為該行貸款的8%,由於中小企正面臨政府防疫措施的壓力,因此撥備情況可能不會在2022年正常化。花旗將恆生2022年信貸損失上調至20個基點。
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