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《大行報告》高盛:HIBOR急促攀升不一定推高本港銀行盈利 偏好中銀(02388.HK)多於恆生(00011.HK)
高盛發表報告指,該行美國經濟師現時預期美國聯儲局今年每次召開議息會議都會加息,意味今年加息共七次。直至2024年底止共加息十次的預期未有改變,但加息行動料集中於前期,即2023年第三季底止的周期。相對2015至2019年的加息周期,該行認為更急步伐的加息步伐,意味本港銀行同業拆息(HIBOR)潛在上行軌跡與2004至2007年更相似。該行稱,美聯儲更快的加息步伐,加上銀行體系外匯流動性顯著較2015年加息周期前為少,意味HIBOR較美國加息的滯後時間較由過去的三個季度縮至兩季。這亦導致2022至2024年各年HIBOR預測分別上調20、95及76點子。該行料一個月HIBOR由今年次季底止的約12點子,升至末季的約87點子,在明年末季升至237點子,後年末季再升至262點子。 報告稱,更急促的HIBOR爬升,不一定意味息口敏感的本港銀行盈利更高。該行利率對淨息差影響分析指,更快加息令淨息差啤打值下降。這發生於加息鼓勵更多活期及儲蓄存款(CASA)轉為定期存款,而活期及儲蓄存款定價開始隨HIBOR變動。上述趨勢推升存款啤打值,因而壓抑銀行淨息差啤打值。存款啤打值下降是2015至2019年加息周期支持淨息差改善的主要因素。更甚者,更快加息對資產負債表增長及非利息收入有拖累效應,亦增加銀行的信貸成本負擔。 報告對中銀香港(02388.HK)及恆生銀行(00011.HK)2022至2024年每股盈測大致不變,偏好中銀多於恆生。予中銀目標價38.5元,評級「買入」,列確信買入名單;予恆生「中性」評級,目標價178元。 另外,由於大新銀行集團(02356.HK)在過去兩輪加息周期中融資表現相對遜色,降2022至2024年每股盈測最多19%,目標價由9.5元降8%至8.7元,予「中性」評級。
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