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《大行報告》瑞信下調太保(02601.HK)目標價至31元 評級「跑贏大市」
阿思達克 02-16 09:54
瑞信發表研究報告,指中國太保(02601.HK)計劃於3月27日公布2021財年業績,該行預測其去年新業務價值下跌22%,而下半年跌幅擴大至44%,主要由於代理保費收入疲弱(第四季跌26%)及利潤率收縮。至於公司今年1月份人壽保費按年跌1.1%,預計代理首年定期保費收入按年跌30%。但該行認為太保的新業務銷售的按年跌幅將於3月開始或有所收窄。 此外,該行估計太保2021財年財險保費按年增長3.4%,意味第四季按年增長4.9%,主要是汽車保險有所復甦。預測公司去年綜合成本率(CoR)為99.3%,下半年其CoR大致與上半年相若,與同業持續惡化情況不同。而今年1月份公司的財險保費增長13%。 瑞信估計,太保2021財年稅後淨利潤按年增長8%,意味第四季按年跌22%;去年稅後經營利潤增長加速至高個位數;儘管內地「償二代」出台對公司償付能力帶來潛在影響,惟相信太保每股派息基本維持在1.3元人民幣。 該行對太保的目標價由33元降至31元,對其2022及2023財年的新業務價值預測分別下調6%,每股盈利預測亦分別下調5%,評級「跑贏大市」。
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